(CB):
My Lords, despite a lot of obvious things
that—understandably—worry many people around the world, in fact
the world economy has strengthened quite notably in 2017. Based
on many of the indicators that I have followed for a very long
time, the world economy is ending 2017 on a cyclically rather
strong footing. I suspect that when we look back, world GDP
growth may have been in the vicinity of 4% this year. In
addition, eight of the 10 largest economies in the world have
accelerated at the same time. The other two, India and—surprise,
surprise—the UK, have weakened. Rather interestingly, even both
of those have in recent weeks shown some better signs after their
previous disappointments...
(CB):...I conclude
on the issue of trade—again, not mentioned much in the Budget.
Fifty per cent of our trade is with the EU and another 20% is
through free trade agreements via the EU, including now with
Japan. Seventy per cent of our trade is FTAs and talks about going after the other
30%, of which the Commonwealth makes up less than
10%—including India, Australia and Canada. We need to
do more with those countries, but the Indian
high commissioner said very clearly, “Yes, we’ll do a free trade
deal with you, but it might take till 2030 and, by the way, it
includes the movement of people as well”...
(LD):...The noble
Lords, Lord O’Neill of Gatley and , also came in on this, talking
about how extraordinary it is at a time when our economic and
main trading partners are firing on all cylinders. JP Morgan last
week said that the economy of the euro area is “on fire”. It
reports all key measures backing a euro area growth forecast of
3.1% of GDP this year. The CBI today made similar comments: a
stagnant UK, a thriving eurozone and a global economy expected to
achieve something in the range of 3.6% to 3.7% this year and
next. It is an extraordinary situation. The drop in our growth
rate together with the plummet of sterling has dropped us from
the fifth-largest to the sixth-largest economy, and if India had
not had a hiccup, we would have been seventh...
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