The Government Actuary's Department (GAD) worked with the UK
Health Security Agency (UKHSA) to explore how uncertainty in
vaccine development could influence the economic consequences of
pandemic response decisions. This included uncertainty in
development timescales and the number of vaccine candidates.
Building on wider preparedness activity, the proof of concept
combined scientific input, economic evidence and actuarial
techniques to demonstrate how a range of possible outcomes could
be explored, rather than relying on a single estimate. It showed
how actuarial modelling can help decision-makers understand
uncertainty and quantify risk.
The ask
The UK's pandemic preparedness
strategy emphasises the use of analysis, scientific evidence
and expert advice. UKHSA asked GAD to test whether actuarial
techniques could support understanding of uncertainty in vaccine
development and help frame its potential implications for the UK
economy.
This was exploratory work. It was designed to demonstrate a
modelling approach, not to recommend a particular response or
replace the scientific, operational and policy judgements for
which decision-makers remain responsible.
What GAD did
GAD and UKHSA developed a simplified, hypothetical model to
explore how uncertainty in vaccine-development timescales could
interact with the economic effects of pandemic response choices.
UKHSA brought public health and subject-matter expertise, while
GAD designed the modelling approach and interpretation of risk.
Drawing on expert input and desk-based research, GAD represented
a sequence of uncertain vaccine-development milestones and tested
many plausible pathways through them. The model then linked the
resulting timescales to a measure of potential economic impact.
Rather than producing a single forecast, the analysis generated a
distribution of outcomes. This allowed the team to examine
central estimates, less likely but more severe outcomes, and the
assumptions that had the greatest influence on results.
How GAD added value
The actuarial approach made uncertainty explicit and connected it
to consequences that matter to decision-makers. It provided a
consistent framework for comparing options, testing sensitivities
and showing how new evidence could change the assessment of risk.
The work also illustrated the importance of diversification:
relying on fewer vaccine candidates could increase expected
development times. Such delays could lead to higher economic
costs.
The value of actuarial analysis
This project showed how actuarial modelling can complement
scientific and economic analysis in pandemic preparedness. It can
quantify uncertainty, compare possible outcomes and highlight
concentration risk, helping decision-makers consider trade-offs
and the implications of emerging evidence.
GAD worked closely with UKHSA to deliver a useful and clearly
presented piece of analysis within a challenging timescale. The
team helped sharpen the focus of the work, communicated clearly
throughout the project and produced a valuable output for us. We
were impressed by the team's technical expertise and would
welcome opportunities to work with GAD again in future.
Michael West, Deputy Chief Economist, UK Health Security Agency
Supporting future decisions
The analysis was a hypothetical, non-advisory proof of concept.
Further research, validation and assurance would be needed before
adapting the model to support live decisions.
As evidence develops, a future model could be updated to reflect
observed development times, changes in the number of vaccine
candidates and revised economic assumptions. This could show how
the risk picture changes and help communicate complex information
in a form relevant to decision-makers.
