Colonel Joby Rimmer, UK Senior Military Advisor, challenges
Russia's claims of inevitable military success in Ukraine and
calls for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.
"Thank you, Mr Chair.
At last week's FSC, the Russian delegation attempted to present a
picture of their inevitable military success in Ukraine. It was
claimed that the Russian Armed Forces were steadily advancing on
all fronts, they described Ukrainian operations and
counterattacks as futile, and they portrayed Western military
assistance as ineffective.
Those claims do not withstand examination, and we feel they must
be addressed in this Forum.
Russia claimed to have taken more than 5,300 square kilometres
and over 220 settlements during 2026, including more than 670
square kilometres and 27 settlements in September. Independent
open-source analysis found nothing even close to those figures.
Assessments are that Russia had secured only a fraction of the
territory claimed, while Ukrainian counterattacks had liberated
significant areas. The Institute for the Study of War says that
Ukraine has liberated 85 square kilometres of territory during
Operation VIVALDI alone.
Interpreting selected tactical movements as advancing on all
fronts is not a military assessment. There are absolutely no
indicators of a decisive Russian breakthrough, or any sense that
there has been any achievement of the objectives of the so-called
special military operation.
Russia has made localised gains, but minor tactical movements do
not represent any sort of inevitable victory. Russian forces are
not advancing everywhere. Ukraine has not collapsed, and the
Ukrainian Armed Forces remain extremely capable of regaining
territory, as the evidence shows on parts of the front.
In the same presentation last week, Russia used images of
decimated Western equipment to boast that military assistance to
Ukraine had failed.
I know all too well from personal experience that Western
vehicles are not invulnerable. Some of them may have been
destroyed, damaged or abandoned, but the loss of individual
systems is inherent in high-intensity warfare, and it does not
establish that those systems have been operationally ineffective.
The appropriate comparison with the Russian Federation is
cumulative and proportional. By May 2026, the open-source project
ORYX had visually confirmed Russian losses of 4,390 main battle
tanks, 6,429 infantry fighting vehicles, 730 armoured personnel
carriers and over 2,000 other armoured vehicle variants.
We have seen the defeat of thousands of Russian fighting
vehicles, and these are documented losses, supported by
photographic or video evidence, and therefore represent a minimum
rather than a complete total. They cannot be reconciled with the
unverified images of so-called effortless military progress
presented by the Russian Federation last week.
Russia's own conduct contradicts its claims. It maintains that
Western military assistance has failed, yet repeatedly demands
that we cease providing it. The considerable effort that the
Russian Armed Forces devote to locating these systems, disrupting
their supply and striking defence-production facilities in
Ukraine demonstrates the value of that assistance.
In this Forum, Russia has threatened companies engaged in
defence-industrial co-operation with Ukraine, but such threats
will not deter us. We will continue to provide Ukraine with the
support and equipment it needs to defend itself against Russia's
invasion.
At the same time, we remain clear, and state clearly, that the
United Kingdom does not seek escalation with Russia.
Nor in last week's presentation was there described a defeated or
militarily paralysed Ukraine. Russia's own account acknowledged
Ukrainian attacks across occupied Ukrainian territory and deep
inside Russia.
Ukraine retains the ability to defend the front, conduct
counterattacks and strike military and war-supporting targets at
considerable range. More than four years after the Russian
Federation's illegal full-scale invasion, Ukraine's Armed Forces
remain operational.
Ukraine's defence industry continues to adapt, and its
international defence partnerships are deepening. Russia has
failed to capture all of the Ukrainian territory it now demands
that Ukraine surrender.
Well, there is another course available. Russia can stop
sacrificing its personnel and equipment for diminishing military
returns. Russia can agree to a full, immediate and unconditional
ceasefire, and can engage seriously in negotiations towards a
just and lasting peace.
And, Mr Chair, the choice facing the Kremlin is not between
inevitable victory and negotiation. It is between continuing a
costly and indecisive war, or choosing ceasefire, negotiation and
peace.
We call on the Russian Federation to make the right choice.
Thank you, Mr Chair."
