Education Secretary quote on release of primary and secondary applications and offers data

Quote from the Education Secretary in response to data out today on primary and secondary applications and offers. The combined preferred offer rate (97.5%) is up 0.1 percentage points on last year - the highest rate since the data collection began in 2014/15.

Education Secretary, Bridget Phillipson, said:

"The predicted exodus from private schools simply hasn't happened and today's data proves it.

"Critics warned state schools would be swamped with new pupils. They were wrong. They said private schools would close en masse. They haven't.

"We are rebalancing the system to focus on the 94% of kids in state schools, a majority that has been sidelined for too long. 

Background

Full data is here: Release home - Primary and secondary school applications and offers - Explore education statistics - GOV.UK

1. Does this data show that private school VAT has caused an influx of pupils into the state sector?

No. Applications to state schools have fallen, not risen. The proportion of families getting a place at one of their preferred schools is at its highest since records began. There are 1.2 million unfilled places across the system.

Class sizes and pupil-teacher ratios remain broadly stable. The government has recruited over 4,600 additional teachers against its 6,500 pledge, with fewer teachers leaving the profession than at almost any point on record.

None of this is consistent with a system absorbing a sudden surge of new pupils. Private school pupil numbers remain firmly within historical patterns seen over the last 20 years.

1. But first preference rates are slightly down overall doesn't that show strain?

The 0.1ppt dip in combined first preference is driven by a marginal fall in primary, while secondary first preference is actually up to its highest rate since 2017. More importantly, the proportion of all families receiving an offer at any preferred school is the highest on record.

It's right that families have good schools to choose from and the measure that matters most - whether families end up with no preferred school at all - is at a near-record low.

1. What about London, where private school density is highest?

London consistently shows lower first preference rates due to the structure of its admissions - parents can express up to six preferences rather than three, leading to more speculative applications.

In 2026, 94.3% of secondary applicants and 98.3% of primary applicants in London received an offer from one of their six preferred schools. That is not a system under pressure.