Labour’s prison gamble has failed

New Ministry of Justice statistics published today expose the full consequences of Labour's approach to criminal justice. Prisons are no less crowded, recalls have surged to record levels, and thousands of criminals are being released.

Labour released 60,108 prisoners early through its SDS40 scheme, 43,886 of them in 2025 alone, and yet the prison population stands at 87,342, virtually unchanged since the election. There are 10,487 foreign nationals in custody, representing 12 per cent of the total prison population. Labour have traded in public safety for nothing.

Recalls to prison demonstrate the ineffectiveness of the early release scheme. Annual recalls hit 48,327, the highest on record, up 29 per cent on the previous year, and more than double the figure from 2015. 550 criminals convicted of violence against the person or sexual offences were recalled to prison before December 2025 and were not returned by March 2026.

Inside the prisons conditions have deteriorated. There were 9 homicides in custody in the year to March 2026, a 350 per cent increase since 2023. There were 31,345 assaults in prisons, up 2.7 per cent, while serious assaults rose 2.8 per cent to a rate of 40 per 1,000 and prisoner-on-prisoner assaults increased six per cent to 248 per 1,000. And in the youth system issues persist, in the final quarter of 2025, assault incidents in the youth secure estate rose six per cent to 489, while staff assaults climbed ten per cent to 235. Self-harm incidents in the youth secure estate surged 32 per cent to 400.

On sentencing, the direction of travel is equally clear. The average custodial sentence has fallen to 19.9 months for all offence types and 22.0 months for indictable offences, with drug offenders now receiving sentences two months shorter than the previous year. Custodial sentences of under 12 months rose ten per cent and now account for 58 per cent of all custodial sentences. Community resolutions rose 11 per cent with 181,700 criminals receiving one, which carry no formal conviction and leave no record.

Fewer criminals jailed, shorter sentences for those who are, dangerous offenders released and then lost, and conditions inside prisons and youth estates deteriorating.

Nick Timothy MP, Shadow Justice Secretary, said:

“Keir Starmer spent years as Director of Public Prosecutions arguing that the criminal justice system was too harsh. He is now Prime Minister, and shockingly, he appears to have been running it on exactly that basis ever since.

“Labour's instinct, whenever a problem needs confronting in our prisons or on our streets, is to look for reasons why punishment is the wrong answer. Sentences get shorter, consequences get softer. Labour simply do not have the backbone or will to tackle this crisis.

“Conservatives would end the early release scandal, deport foreign national offenders to free up space to lock up violent and repeat offenders, and take back our streets. Prison works, but Labour just refuse to accept it.”

ENDS

Notes to Editors:

Labour is losing dangerous criminals: 

• 550 dangerous criminals have gone missing under Labour. 550 criminals convicted of violence against the person or sexual offences were recalled to prison before December 2025 and were not returned by March 2025 (MoJ, Offender management statistics quarterly: October to December 2025, 30 April 2026, link).

Criminals are not facing justice under Labour: 

• Criminals are spending less time in prison under Labour. The average custodial sentence has reduced to 19.9 months for all offence types and to 22.0 for indictable offences, down from 20.3 and 22.4 respectively in the previous year (MoJ, Criminal Justice Statistics Quarterly: December 2025, 30 April 2026, link).

• Criminals who commit drug offences are receiving a softer touch. There were reductions in average custodial length for nearly half of indictable offences. Those who commit drug offences received a custodial sentence of two months less than the previous year (MoJ, Criminal Justice Statistics Quarterly: December 2025, 30 April 2026, link).

• The number of criminals receiving a custodial sentence of less than 12 months has increased by 10 per cent. This accounted for 58 per cent of all custodial sentences (MoJ, Criminal Justice Statistics Quarterly: December 2025, 30 April 2026, link).

• Community resolutions have increased by 11 per cent, meaning these criminals will never see the inside of a courtroom. 181,700 criminals received a community resolution, meaning no formal conviction on their record and reversing the trend of proper accountability for criminals (MoJ, Criminal Justice Statistics Quarterly: December 2025, 30 April 2026, link).

Prison violence is increasing: 

• Assaults in prisons rose by three per cent.  In the 12 months to December 2025, there were 31,345 assaults at a rate of 360 assaults per 1,000 prisoners. This is a rise of 2.7 per cent (MoJ, Safety in Custody Statistics, 30 April 2026, link).

• Serious assaults in prisons increased by three per cent. 11 per cent of all assaults were serious and there were 3,484 incidents of serious assault in the year to December 2025. The rate was 40 serious assaults per 1,000 prisoners, an increase of 2.8 per cent (MoJ, Safety in Custody Statistics, 30 April 2026, link).

• The rate of prisoner-on-prisoner assaults increased by six per cent. In the 12 months to December 2025, the rate of prisoner-on-prisoner assaults was 248 assaults per 1,000 prisoners (21,463 prisoners-on-prisoner assaults), up six per cent from the 12 months to December 2024 (MoJ, Safety in Custody Statistics, 30 April 2026, link).

• There were nine homicides in the 12 months to March 2026, a 350 per cent increase from 2023. In 2021 and 2022, there was just one homicide in prison in each year, increasing to two in 2023, then increasing to nine from March 2025 to March 2026 (MoJ, Safety in Custody Statistics, 30 April 2026, link).

• The rate of assaults on staff increased by 12 per cent in female establishments. Whilst the rate of assaults on staff has decreased by 4.5 per cent from the 12 months to December 2024, there has been a significant increase in of assaults on prison staff in female establishments (MoJ, Safety in Custody Statistics, 30 April 2026, link).

Children and young people are less safe in the secure estate:

• Assaults in the youth secure estate hit 489 in the final quarter of 2025, up 6 per cent on the same period in 2024. In the 3 months October to December 2025, there were 489 assault incidents in the Children and Young People Secure Estate involving 318 different Children and Young People as assailants or fighters. The annualised rate of assault incidents was 432.6 per 100 Children and Young People per year, an increase of 6 per cent when compared to the same period in 2024 when the rate was 408.5 incidents per 100 Children and Young People per year (MoJ, Safety in the Children and Young People Secure Estate: Update to December 2025, 30 April 2026, link). 

• Staff assaults in the youth secure estate reached 235 in the final quarter of 2025, up 10 per cent on the same period in 2024. In the 3 months October to December 2025, there were 235 incidents in the Children and Young People Secure Estate where staff were assaulted. The annualised rate of assault incidents on staff was 207.9 per 100 Children and Young People per year, an increase of 10 per cent compared to the same period in 2024 when the rate was 189.7 incidents per 100 Children and Young People per year (MoJ, Safety in the Children and Young People Secure Estate: Update to December 2025, 30 April 2026, link). 

• Self-harm incidents in the youth secure estate rose 32 per cent year on year to 400 in the final quarter of 2025, despite the number of individuals self-harming falling slightly from 83 to 78. In the 3 months October to December 2025 there were 400 incidents of self-harm involving 78 different Children and Young People. The annualised rate was 353.9 incidents per 100 Children and Young People per year, an increase of 32 per cent compared to the same period last year. The number of unique children and young people self-harming in the 3 months October to December 2025 was 78, compared to 83 unique children and young people who self-harmed in the 3 months October to December 2024 (MoJ, Safety in the Children and Young People Secure Estate: Update to December 2025, 30 April 2026, link).   

Labour's release programme is not working: 

• Over 40,000 prisoners were released early in 2025. From January 2025 to December 2025, there were 43,886 SDS40 releases with 11,177 coming from October to December 2025. This includes over 1,000 non-British Nationals (MoJ, Standard Determinate Sentence (SDS40) release data: October 2024 to December 2025, 30 April 2026, link).

• Labour has released over 60,000 prisoners early under SDS40. Beginning in September 2024 up to December 2025, Labour have released 60,108 prisoners early (MoJ, Standard Determinate Sentence (SDS40) release data: October 2024 to December 2025, 30 April 2026, link; Standard Determinate Sentence 40 (SDS40) : September 2024 to March 2025, 31 July 2025, link).

• The total prison population has remained unchanged, despite Labour releasing nearly 60,000 prisoners early. There are 87,342prisoners in England and Wales as of 31 March 2026, meaning it is ‘virtually unchanged', despite Labour releasing 56,323 early through SDS40 (MoJ, Offender management statistics quarterly: October to December 2025, 30 April 2026, link).

• Annual recalls hit 48,327, the highest on record and up 29 per cent on the previous year. The total number of annual recalls has more than doubled from 2015 to 2025, with the latest annual figure of 48,327 the highest in the annual series from 2015, representing an increase of 125 per cent from 2015 and 29 per cent from last year (MoJ, Offender management statistics quarterly: October to December 2025, 30 April 2026, link).

Our prisons are full of foreign nationals:

• There were 10,487 foreign nationals held in custody on 31 March 2026, which represents 12 per cent of the total prison population. There were 3,588 remand, 6,458 sentenced and 441 non-criminal foreign nationals held in custody on 31 March 2026, summating in a total of 10,487 foreign national offenders held in custody, representing 12 per cent of the total prison population (MoJ, Offender management statistics quarterly: October to December 2025 30 April 2026, link).

Keir Starmer spent years as Director of Public Prosecutions arguing that the criminal justice system was too harsh: 

• Keir Starmer said it was not the duty of the director of public prosecutions to represent victims. ‘The public prosecutor is not the victim's prosecutor, and for good reason: the allegiance of the public prosecutor is to justice itself - and that necessarily means justice to both sides. I recognise that this can often be a source of tension, with victims looking at the defence lawyers and seeing a team dedicated to a single purpose - the acquittal of the accused. But our relationship with victims is clear and needs to be clearly stated: while we are not the victim's prosecutor, it is our duty to enable, encourage and support the effective participation of victims and witnesses at all stages in the criminal justice process' (CPS, Annual CPS Lecture, 21 October 2009, link)
  
  
• In October 2009, Keir Starmer was criticised for proposals that would have led to fewer prosecutions for persistent criminals. Keir Starmer announced that suspects would avoid any form of punishment, including a police caution, if action was not deemed ‘proportionate'. For the first time, lawyers will have to weigh the cost and time involved in bringing a prosecution against the seriousness of a crime and the harm it has caused. The guidance is intended to encourage ‘common sense' in the justice system (Richard Edwards and Christopher Hope, ‘New rules will ‘let criminals off hook'', Daily Telegraph, 20/10/2009).

• In November 2009, Keir Starmer instructed prosecutors to take into consideration criminals' human rights before bringing charges. Keir Starmer told his lawyers they should weigh evidence of crime against European human rights rules as well as against the laws of England when they decide whether to bring charges. Mr Starmer's move puts the Human Rights Act at the centre of the criminal justice system for the first time since Labour passed it into law 11 years ago. It means that in future, criminals may escape being brought to trial if prosecutors think evidence against them was gathered by police in breach of human rights rules' (Daily Mail, 3 November 2009, link).