National Audit Office: Falling pupil numbers in primary schools requires a coordinated response from DfE, local authorities and academy trusts

• Pupil numbers in primary schools have fallen nationally, with DfE projecting a further 7% decline in demand by 2030.
• As most school funding is based on pupil numbers, this creates financial risks for some schools and could impact educational quality, particularly for certain groups such as disadvantaged pupils.
• DfE has not yet provided the sector sufficient timely insight or support. The NAO urges DfE to build on its Estate Strategy, fully considering how it can best support the sector in responding to falling pupil numbers.

Despite primary school pupil numbers falling since 2018/19, DfE has provided the school sector with limited support to manage the risks to educational performance and value for money caused by a drop in pupil demand, a new National Audit Office (NAO) report has found.¹

Nationally, between 2018/19 and 2024/25 demand for primary school places fell by 3%, with a further fall of 7% forecast by 2030, albeit with local variation. Unfilled school places rose from 10% to 14% in the same period.²

This decline in pupil numbers could impact schools financially, because most school funding is based on pupil numbers. Although wider decisions impact a school's financial position, we estimate that a projected reduction of 56,300 fewer primary school pupils in 2027 could mean that schools receive £288 million less in per-pupil funding. Falling pupil numbers and funding could affect pupils inequitably, with pupils from more disadvantaged backgrounds being disproportionately impacted.³

Falling demand for school places follows many years of the sector needing to create more places for pupils. In response, DfE significantly increased capital funding, including through the Free Schools Programme, which may have created more school places than were needed.⁴

Local authorities are responsible for overseeing school places in their local area. However, DfE only started to track the specific risk of not responding to changing demographics in 2024 and does not yet have a clear approach to supporting the sector in deciding how and when to respond. The recent 2026 Estates Strategy shows DfE developing aspects of this.⁵

Although local authorities provide DfE with school capacity data and other data sources on their response to pupil number changes, DfE could make better use of this to monitor how schools respond or to understand the value for money risks.

DfE has begun to identify opportunities to reuse space and cut costs, such as encouraging schools to create or expand nurseries, and has provided some funding to help manage the impact of funding gaps.⁶

To help schools respond to falling pupil numbers, the NAO has recommended that DfE should:

• Build on the Estates Strategy, to help the sector identify the places that may not be needed and how it can be resilient to future changes.
• Consider how the decline in pupil numbers (and corresponding reduction in funding) may impact on pupil outcomes, particularly for pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds.
• Work across government, alongside encouraging local collaboration, to support the sector to make best use of spare space. 

Gareth Davies, head of the NAO, said:

“After a long period of increasing demand for school places, we are now seeing an overall fall in primary school pupil numbers with local variation.”

This will require a targeted response from DfE, local authorities, academy trusts and individual schools, in order to protect educational outcomes and value for money.”

Notes to editors

1. Despite the national trend of falling numbers, 16% of local authorities saw increases in primary school pupil numbers between 2018/19 and 2024/25. Of local authorities forecasting falling primary school pupil numbers, 66% expect to see numbers increase in one or more of the smaller areas for which they gather data.
2. In the short term, decreased funding will add to financial challenges which already disproportionately affect lower performing schools, which have a higher percentage of pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds. This could therefore negatively impact pupil outcomes. 
3. Between 2009/10 and 2024/25, DfE created a net increase of 1.3 million school places. DfE largely funded this through capital funding targeted at those areas needing to create places and the Free Schools Programme. In 2010, DfE introduced free schools with the aim of improving educational quality through increasing parental choice and competition between schools for pupils.  It also helped to address rising pupil numbers at the time.
4. The strategy describes DfE's broad expectations for local authorities in how to use spare space, but does not cover identifying unneeded places or when the sector should act. Read the full Estates Strategy here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/education-estates-strategy 
5. In 2024-25 DfE allocated some funding for local authorities to help schools manage unfilled places in the short term (“falling rolls fund”). The fund is designed to help the sector address temporary falls in pupil numbers(within three to five years) and avoid unnecessary costs.  For 2025-26, the falling rolls fund allocated £141,890 for each area within a local authority with a 10% or more reduction in pupil numbers between any two years across the period for which DfE collects local authority data. In 2025-26, DfE allocated just under £27 million through its falling rolls fund.