Reactions to today's Inflation figures for February 2026

Conservative response to Inflation remaining the highest in the G7

Sir Mel Stride MP, Shadow Chancellor, said:

“Thanks to Labour's mismanagement, we are entering this latest energy crisis with the highest inflation in the G7. Under Rachel Reeves our economy is weaker and more vulnerable to external shocks.

“Today's figures show the cost of living was already rising too fast for families who will now be bracing for the impact of events in the Middle East on their bills.

“The Chancellor's irresponsible decision to ramp up borrowing and spending while hiking taxes on businesses has fuelled inflation. At the same time, Ed Miliband's net zero dogma means we are reliant on imports instead of taking advantage of our own resources in the North Sea.

“Only the Conservatives have the plan and the leadership to get costs, bills and debt down, fix our economy and Get Britain Working Again.”

Trump's Middle East conflict threatens to derail UK's progress on inflation, says IPPR 

Responding to the latest inflation statistics, William Ellis, senior economist at IPPR, said:  

“Today's CPI figures show that inflation held steady at 3 per cent in February. Before Trump's conflict in the Middle East, inflation was on track to hit the 2 per cent target later this year. That progress is now under serious threat. 

“Rising oil and gas prices are already feeding through to UK households and businesses — at the pump, on energy bills, and in the prices on the shelf. As long as we are heavily dependent on fossil fuels for our energy, we remain exposed to exactly this kind of crisis. 

"Government should be prepared to act on prices directly if energy markets spiral further — whether through capping costs or other fiscal interventions — as well as speeding up the rollout of renewables to reduce our exposure before the next shock hits.” 

CBI responds to latest inflation data for February

Martin Sartorius, Lead Economist, CBI, said:

“Inflation remained elevated in February, broadly consistent with the Bank of England's projections. However, these data are already old news, as the recent spike in global energy prices due to the Iran conflict means that we expect to see renewed inflationary pressures in the near-term. This could potentially delay the return to 2% inflation until next year, rather than this summer.

“The extent to which inflation will pick up in the coming months will depend on the duration and intensity of the Iran conflict. Households have already seen a rise in fuel pump prices, but a more protracted conflict would result in higher energy bills from July. Food and other goods prices could also see upward pressure due to recent increases in some global commodities prices and disruption in supply chains.

“At this stage, the uncertainty surrounding the extent of the potential inflationary impact of the Iran conflict means that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will likely keep rates on hold next month. The bar for hiking rates is relatively high, given weak domestic activity and a cooling labour market, but cannot be ruled out if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates significantly further.”

Lib Dems: Inflation figures: Trumpflation is looming - Ministers must put in place a serious plan

Responding to this morning's inflation figures for the year to February, which show the rate remaining at 3%, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP said:

“Stubbornly high inflation will do absolutely nothing to calm the nerves of Brits across the country, already grappling with an endless cost of living crisis.

“Trumpflation is looming on the horizon, set to squeeze budgets even further — with higher prices and fewer pounds in the pockets of people across the country.

“The Government can't turn its back on people as the cost of living spirals. Ministers must put in place a serious plan to help families and small businesses bring down their energy costs, and make sure vulnerable and high energy households aren't pushed over the edge by crippling energy bill rises.”

IoD: Conflict in the Middle East is a potential game changer for inflation

Commenting on today's data from the Office for National Statistics that showed the annual rate of CPI inflation holding at 3.0% in February 2026, Anna Leach, Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors, said:

“The outlook for inflation has changed markedly. The hit to global energy supply so far from events in the Middle East has been profound and the warnings from the International Energy Agency over its “unprecedented” nature are stark. But the starting point for inflation still matters here. At the outset of the Ukraine war, inflation was already almost 6% and projected to rise above 7%. Inflation is half that level now. Economic conditions are weaker too. Back then, unemployment was below 4% and private sector wage growth elevated at around 5%: they're now 5.2% and 3.3% respectively. With a considerably weaker demand environment, the need for the Bank of England to lean against second round effects should be lesser.

“Ahead of this conflict, public sector borrowing was heading down and there'd been a welcome increase in headroom against the fiscal rules. But this shock – through its impact on inflation and government borrowing costs – could take a chunk out of that headroom. The government is right to have intervened swiftly to support households exposed to a sharp escalation in heating oil costs. And is likewise right to tread carefully in considering further economic support, that would need to be funded through either spending cuts elsewhere, or higher taxes. With the OBR already having issued a warning about UK marginal tax rates and the pace of increase in the tax burden, future support packages will need to be carefully targeted to minimise broader economic pressures.”

“The spike in energy prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East is set to worsen cost pressures for UK businesses, which already face the highest industrial energy costs in the G7. While the upcoming British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme will help to reduce energy costs for some manufacturers, it will do nothing to bring down energy prices for the vast majority of UK businesses. More ambition is needed from the government to address the structural reasons why UK industrial energy costs are so high; its current approach of waiting for gas to be displaced such that it no longer drives electricity prices will not help businesses to weather this storm.”

British Chambers of Commerce: Calm Before The Inflation Storm 

Responding to the latest inflation data, published this morning by the Office for National Statistics, Stuart Morrison, Research Manager at the British Chambers of Commerce said: 

“For businesses across the UK, today's inflation data represents the calm before the storm. 

“CPI of 3% in February shows an economy yet to be impacted by the shock of the Middle East conflict, with fuel prices falling. But our forecast published after the unrest began, shows that the war will delay the previously expected slowdown in inflation. 

“UK firms are particularly exposed to the economic impact of the crisis in the Middle East as our electricity prices are tightly tethered to global gas prices. This will feed directly into higher costs and renewed inflationary pressure in the months to come.  

“The cost of living and the cost of doing business are two sides of the same coin. The government must continue to keep all options on the table to help firms deal with rising energy bills. At the same time, tackling other cost pressures, from business rates to national insurance, must remain a key priority.” 

Resolution Foundation: Calm before the storm as inflation holds steady ahead of an imminent oil shock

CPI inflation held steady at 3.0 per cent in February, but with soaring oil prices prompting the Bank of England to revise up its inflation forecast, this may be the last bit of good news on the cost of living for some time, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday).

Beneath the headline figure for last month, the picture is mixed. There were rises in some key goods prices – particularly clothing and footwear where there was less discounting than a year ago. But there was downward pressure from petrol and food inflation – trends which we are set to see reverse sharply. 

Indeed, the outlook is worrying. The Bank of England now expects inflation to rise to close to 3.5 per cent in March, driven in large part by higher petrol prices. Global oil prices have already risen beyond the $100 per barrel mark, and the UK is very much exposed to resultant price pressures. Higher oil prices will not just feed through to petrol pumps – they also drive up the cost of food and other essentials.

This makes the Government's response to the coming price shock all the more important. Petrol prices, while immediately sensitive to oil market swings, are not the right lever for policy action. Energy bills – where prices remain around 60 per cent higher than in 2021 – are.

A social tariff for energy which targets support for the lowest-income household by offering a lower per-unit rate for energy would provide protection where it is really needed, at a price point the Government can responsibly afford. The infrastructure for a social tariff must be built now, before the pressure hits.

James Smith, Chief Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said:

"February's inflation figures were consistent with a path back to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target – but they represent the last missive from a lost world. The Bank now expects inflation to rise to around 3.5 per cent in the coming months, rather than falling back.

“The transmission of higher energy prices to the cost of everyday essentials like petrol and food mean that families who are already stretched face another squeeze on from the high cost of living.

"The government needs to act now to prepare for higher energy bills for the coming winter. The right response is to build the infrastructure for a social tariff. That groundwork needs to be laid now, so it's ready to roll out in the Autumn as radiators are switched on and bills rise sharply."