£18bn welfare surge equals cost of 200 fighter jets - Centre for Social Justice

Britain's welfare bill is set to surge by £18 billion in a single year – enough to fund a huge expansion of the armed forces – as ministers scramble to find money to strengthen the military.

Analysis by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) suggests the increase in welfare spending this year alone is equivalent to 15 advanced Royal Navy frigates, 220 fighter jets, or 250,000 soldiers' salaries – more than three times the size of the regular British Army.

New figures show the cost of benefits and pensions will climb to around £333 billion this year, an increase larger than the annual budgets of several government departments combined.

The rise – driven by soaring sickness and disability claims as well as increases to pensions and benefits – is adding fresh pressure to the public finances just as defence chiefs warn Britain must rearm in an increasingly dangerous world.

The surge comes as Britain already spends more on health and disability benefits than defence, highlighting the scale of the fiscal pressures facing ministers.
The think tank says the crisis is underpinned by the growing number of working-age people outside the labour market.

More than four million people now claim Universal Credit with no requirement to look for work, while the number of people claiming disability benefits has surged in the years since Covid.

Official forecasts suggest claims will continue to rise sharply over the coming decade, with around 1,000 new disability benefit claims being approved every working day largely due to mental health claims.

The CSJ says reversing economic inactivity could dramatically improve the UK's fiscal position. The think tank estimates that getting one million people back into work would boost the public finances by around £18 billion a year through higher tax receipts and lower benefit spending.

That would be enough to fund the entire increase needed to raise defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP, give workers a £2,200 tax cut by raising the personal allowance, or build 15 new hospitals.

The CSJ warned the country risks drifting into a permanent “sickness economy”.

Joe Shalam, policy director at the Centre for Social Justice, said:

“Britain cannot afford to keep writing off millions of people to long-term welfare while the world becomes more dangerous.

“Behind these numbers are millions of people with talents and dreams who deserve the chance to gain all the advantages that come with work.

“We already spend more on health-related benefits than the entire defence budget. Repairing broken Britain and helping people realise their potential is ultimately a matter of national security.”

The CSJ has called for mental health benefits to be tightened to more severe cases, saving £7 billion and reinvesting £1 billion to radically expand NHS talking therapies and employment support.

It has called on ministers to follow through with proposals to scrap certain benefits for under-22s to instead fund a scheme helping employers take on British young people not in work, education or training.

ENDS