Responses to today's GDP figures

An HM Treasury spokesperson responds to ONS GDP statistics in the three months to October.

An HM Treasury spokesperson said:

“We are determined to defy the forecasts on growth and create good jobs, so everyone is better off, while also helping us invest in better public services.

“That is why the Chancellor is taking £150 off energy bills, protecting record investment in our infrastructure, and we are backing major planning reforms, the expansion of Heathrow and Gatwick airports, and the construction of Sizewell C.”

Conservatives

Sir Mel Stride MP, Shadow Chancellor, said:

“This morning's news that the economy unexpectedly shrank in the three months to October is extremely concerning but it's as a direct result of Labour's economic mismanagement.

“Rachel Reeves promised growth but Labour has no plan for the economy - just their own survival, that's why Reeves presented a Benefits Budget that rewards welfare not work.

“For months, Rachel Reeves has misled the British public. She said she wouldn't raise taxes on working people - she broke that promise again. She insisted there was a black hole in the public finances - but there wasn't.”

ENDS

Notes to Editors:

• Mark Fitzpatrick, CEO of St James's Place, said that speculation about the Budget led to people withdrawing from their pension leading to them being ‘damaged'. FITZPATRICK: ‘The run up to the budget this time was almost long well was longer than last year. And there was a lot of speculation last year, there was a lot of speculation this year. My ask to the government is to try and limit periods of speculation, because people act on speculation and if they take money out of their pension prematurely, then they've damaged their pensions going forward … And it's it happened last year significantly, hundreds of thousands of people drew down prematurely. This year as well, it's happened. So people's pensions have been damaged due to the speculation' (Big Boss Interview, 3 December 2025, archived).

• Michael Summersgill, CEO at AJ Bell, said ahead of the Autumn Budget that ‘uncertainty around government policy continues to cause disruption … creates damaging uncertainty for customers and advisers'. SUMMERSGILL: ‘uncertainty around government policy continues to cause disruption. Speculation over pension taxation ahead of the November Budget, which has developed in the absence of a clear and lasting government commitment to pension tax stability, creates damaging uncertainty for customers and advisers' (The Business Desk, 23 October 2025,link).

• Michael Summersgill, CEO at AJ Bell, said that speculation ahead of the Autumn Budget led to ‘hundreds of millions of pounds of additional withdrawals from pensions' STUDIO: ‘You say in your results heightened pension withdrawals, what proportions were being taken out compared to previous times?' SUMMERSGILL: ‘Well, it's a repeat of the issue that we saw last year. So we did see hundreds of millions of pounds of additional withdrawals from pensions, and that's people who are at or around retirement reacting to the uncertainty in that long drawn out period up to the budget when there was no comment from government on their policy here and rumour and speculation filled that void' (BBC Radio 4 Today, 4 December 2025, archived).

• The British Chambers of Commerce Q3 Quarterly Economic Survey found that budget uncertainty directly led to weaker investment. According to the BCC, businesses said: ‘The uncertainty around future tax increases to business is directly affecting investment and recruitment decisions we are making. Projects are going on hold over the next couple of months until the end of the year' (BCC, Press Release, 9 October 2025, link).

• Calastone, a leading global funds network, said equity funds suffered their largest outflows on record in October because of Budget uncertainty. According to Calastone, £3.63 billion was withdrawn from equity funds with £7.63 billion withdrawn since June – the largest outflow on record. Edward Glyn, head of global markets at Calastone said: ‘The political narrative has played havoc with UK savers in recent months. Never have we seen such consistent or large-scale selling before. The recent period of policy uncertainty has clearly unsettled investors and, in some cases, prompted reactive decisions they may later regret' (The Daily Telegraph, 4 December 2025, link; Calastone, Press Release, 10 November 2025, link).

• Bank of England data shows that mortgage approvals fell in October which industry professionals blamed on Budget uncertainty. Bank of England data showed that net mortgage approvals fell by 600 to 65,000 and approvals for remortgaging fell by 3,600 to 33,100. Jeremy Leaf, an estate agent and former RICS residential chairman said: ‘Mortgage approvals provide the best evidence of likely market activity over the next few months, and it's clear from these figures that speculation about the Chancellor's Budget took its toll' (Landlord Today, 2 December 2025, link; Bank of England, Money and Credit, 1 December 2025, link).

• Simon Gammon, Managing Partner at Knight Frank, said that pre-Budget speculation led to a drop in mortgage approvals. GAMMON: ‘Mortgage approvals for house purchases dipped in October as speculation mounted over which tax rises would be announced in the November budget. The steady drip of policy leaks weighed heavily on sentiment' (Landlord Today, 2 December 2025, link).

TUC

Commenting on ONS figures showing GDP falling by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025, TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said:  

“Bringing our economy back on track after 14 years of Tory chaos was never going to be straightforward. A volatile international context is not making this job any easier.     

“After years of falling living standards, consumer spending is still very weak.  

“The Government acted to boost household incomes at the Budget – it raised minimum wage, benefitting millions across the country, cut child poverty and funded energy payments to support living standards.     

“The Bank of England should now recognise the impact that the living standards crisis has had on families' and businesses' finances and spending - and must deliver further cuts in interest rates next week” 

British Chambers of Commerce

Reacting to the latest GDP data from the Office for National Statistics, Stuart Morrison, Research Manager at the British Chambers of Commerce said: 

“There's little festive cheer for businesses in the latest GDP data, as the economy unexpectedly shrank in both the three-month period and October itself. Firms are left waiting for an unlikely Christmas miracle on growth.  

“The data paints a particularly worrying picture on the services sector, which is usually a real strength of the UK economy.  

“The BCC's latest economic forecast, published yesterday, shows 2026 will be another challenging year with limited growth, low levels of business investment, exports slowing and rising unemployment.  

“The Budget didn't hit all firms with another general tax hike, but the Chancellor's statement was a missed opportunity on growth levers.  

“Next year must be the moment the Government works with business to unlock growth, with a particular focus on both boosting trade and helping firms embrace AI. It's also crucial that the welcome ideas in the recent industrial, trade and infrastructure strategies are delivered, rather than just remaining words on a page.”