92% of the global economy is decoupling emissions from growth - ECIU

• Analysis finds that between 2015 and 2023, economies responsible for 92% of global GDP have absolutely or relatively decoupled CO₂ emissions from growth.      

New analysis from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) shows that an expanding share of the world economy is cutting CO₂ emissions while continuing to grow — meaning decoupling is beginning to occur at scale. The study, 10 Years Post-Paris: How emissions decoupling has progressed globally [1], uses the latest consumption-based Global Carbon Budget data across 113 countries representing more than 97% of global GDP and 93% of global emissions.

Absolute decoupling happens when emissions are declining even as the economy expands. Relative decoupling means emissions are still increasing, but at a slower rate than economic growth.

It finds that:

• Overall, 92% of global GDP and 89% of global emissions are in economies that have decoupled, either relatively or absolutely, up from 77% for both in the decade before the Paris Agreement (2006–2015).
• Between 2015 and 2023, countries representing more than 46% of global GDP absolutely decoupled — growing their economies while cutting CO2 emissions in absolute terms. That share is up from just over 38% in the pre-Paris period (2006-2015).
• The number of countries achieving absolute decoupling rose from 32 pre-Paris to 43 post-Paris, while those achieving relative decoupling rose from 35 to 40.
• Absolute decoupling is widespread across advanced economies, even when adjusting for emissions embodied in imports.

Commenting on the findings, John Lang, one of the report authors and Net Zero Tracker Lead at ECIU, said: “We're sometimes told the world can't cut emissions without cutting growth. The opposite is happening. Decoupling is now the norm, not the exception — and the share of the global economy that is decoupling emissions in an absolute sense is steadily increasing.

“Of course, global totals matter most and CO₂ emissions continue to rise, though at a far slower rate than 10 years ago. Under the hood, the structural shift is unmistakable. More countries are bending their curves, and crucially, China's CO2 emissions have been flat for 18 months and may have peaked.”

Commenting on the findings, Gareth Redmond-King, Head of International at ECIU, said: “The momentum built by the Paris Agreement is unstoppable – the economic realities make it so. Solutions like solar power have outperformed pre-Paris predictions many times over, as costs have plummeted and investment in clean energy outstrips that in fossil fuels by two to one. More people are employed globally in clean energy than fossil fuels, whilst at home the net zero industries grow three times faster than the economy as a whole.

"Net zero remains the only solution to halting ever more costly and dangerous impacts from climate change. That it also offers better health, growth and jobs, and food security can only continue to build the momentum achieved during the first decade of the Paris Agreement.”

Momentum beyond the headlines

The report shows widespread decoupling across Europe and North America, and in major South American and Southern African economies. The US and the EU fall into absolute decoupling, while India and China show relative decoupling, with China's emissions growing far more slowly than GDP over the 2015–2023 period.

Some of the largest proportional emissions reductions were recorded in Western Europe, including Norway, Switzerland and the UK. These are among a cohort of over 20 global economies which have consistently demonstrated absolute decoupling over the past two decades.

The report also finds that many emerging economies have made significant turnarounds — moving from emissions rising faster than GDP to absolute decoupling, with emissions now falling as their economies expand. This includes Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Jordan and Mozambique.

Sensitivity testing

To test the robustness of these findings, the report repeats the analysis using shifted sample windows. Across all scenarios, the share of global emissions in absolutely decoupled economies varies only by a few percentage points — showing clearly that the trend is not an artefact of endpoint selection.

ENDS