Conservatives table formal censure motion against the Chancellor

The Conservatives will today [Wednesday 10 December] force a vote to censure the Chancellor, calling on Rachel Reeves to apologise to the British public for misleading them over her Benefits Street Budget.

The motion will hold the Chancellor to account for misleading families about the state of the public finances to justify another round of tax rises to pay for more welfare. As Reeves prepares to face MPs at the Treasury Select Committee, the motion gives MPs from all parties the chance to formally record no confidence in her conduct.

The censure motion is expected to read:

That this House calls on the Chancellor to apologise for misleading the country about the state of the public finances, rolling the pitch for raising taxes, breaking her promises and increasing welfare spending, including her claim on 4 November that the OBR would be downgrading their productivity forecast which ‘has consequences for the public finances too, in lower tax receipts', when in fact on 31 October the OBR's forecast showed tax receipts £16 billion higher than previously thought and the Government's current balance target met by a margin of £4.2 billion; calls on the Chancellor to apologise for breaching the trust of the OBR, whose forecasts are shared in strict confidence; calls on the Chancellor to apologise for the misleading briefings and leaks from the Treasury which caused uncertainty for families, businesses and investors; and further calls on the Chancellor to apologise for breaking her promise after the last Budget that the Government was not going to raise taxes again, and instead raising taxes at the Budget by £26 billion.

During the election, Labour repeatedly promised not to raise taxes and accused the Conservatives of lying for warning that they would. But at her first Budget, Reeves hiked taxes by £40 billion, hitting businesses, damaging growth and costing tens of thousands of jobs.

She then told the public she wouldn't be “back for more” at her next Budget. But instead she launched a further £26 billion tax raid on working people - claiming it was necessary to fill a fictitious hole in the public finances.

In reality, Reeves hiked taxes to pay for a big welfare giveaway aimed at calming down rebellious Labour MPs who are plotting against the Prime Minister. It was all to save her own skin.

Reeves claimed on 4 November that the OBR would be downgrading their productivity forecast, with “consequences for the public finances too, in lower tax receipts”. In fact, on 31 October the OBR's forecast showed tax receipts were £16 billion higher than previously thought and the Government's current balance target was met with a surplus of £4.2 billion. Reeves has since repeatedly refused to acknowledge that she misled the public.

The Conservatives are therefore giving MPs the opportunity to make their views clear on her conduct and call on her to apologise to the British public.

The Shadow Chancellor has also written to the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) twice - with his most recent letter (sent on 6 December) asking a series of evidence based questions as to why it will not investigate market-sensitive leaks from the Treasury. Stride has also written letters to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Treasury following the market-moving pre-Budget leaks.

Shadow Chancellor, Sir Mel Stride MP said:

“Rachel Reeves has repeatedly misled the British public. She promised she wouldn't raise taxes on working people - and then she did. She insisted there was a black hole in the public finances - and there wasn't.

“Rachel Reeves has put party before country, so today the Conservatives are giving MPs the chance to formally censure the Chancellor and call on her to apologise to families across the country.  

“Labour simply doesn't have the backbone to take the tough decisions Britain needs. Only the Conservatives have a plan to cut welfare, cut tax, back business and get Britain working again.”

ENDS

Notes to Editors:

The Chancellor repeatedly misled the public:

• Rachel Reeves said Labour have ‘wiped the slate clean … it's now on us … we don't need to come back for more'. REEVES: ‘It's an absolute commitment. Let me just say, we've now wiped the slate clean, under the mismanagement and the chaos of the previous Government. It's now on us… We don't need to come back for more. We've done that now with wiping the slate clean' (Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, 3 November 2025, archived).
• Labour have mislead the public, claiming the public finances were worse than they were simply to justify tax hikes. On 4 November, Rachel Reeves stated that the UK's productivity performance ‘is weaker than we previously thought', suggesting that an Income Tax rise may be necessary, even though the OBR had estimated her fiscal headroom at £4.2 billion on 31 October (Pre-Budget Speech, 4 November 2025, archived; OBR, Letter, 28 November 2025, link).
• The Autumn Budget hiked taxes by £26 billion to pay for more welfare handouts. Despite her pledge not to ‘come back for more', the Budget increases taxes by £26 billion, pushing the tax burden to a historic high of 38.3 per cent of GDP. Alongside this, Labour abolished the two-child benefit cap (OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, 26 November 2025, archived).
• Labour continue to argue this was necessary – citing a £16 billion productivity downgrade – while ignoring the revenue upgrade the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) handed the Chancellor. Although the productivity downgrade cut revenues by £16 billion, this was largely offset by higher inflation and stronger-than-expected tax receipts, which added £14 billion and £10 billion respectively. Combined with other factors that boosted revenues by a further £7 billion, the Chancellor entered this Budget with projected revenues £16 billion higher than in March. (IFS, Autumn Budget 2025: IFS analysis event, 27 November 2025, archived).

• Now the Cabinet are turning on the ‘incompetent' Prime Minister and Chancellor. A Cabinet minister told The Times: ‘At no point were the cabinet told about the reality of the OBR forecasts. Had we been told, we might have been in a position to advise against setting hares running on income tax and giving the public the impression we are casual about our manifesto commitments. The handling of this budget has been a disaster from start to finish'. Another minister said Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves looked ‘weak and incompetent' in the wake of the budget (The Times, 1 December 2025, link).

The Chancellor's Timeline of Misdirection:

• On 7 August, the OBR ‘informed the Treasury that we would be reducing our central forecast for underlying medium-term total factor productivity growth by 0.3 percentage points'. ‘As noted in our July 2025 Forecast evaluation report, over the summer we conducted our annual supply stock take which, in this instance, concentrated on our forecast for the underlying rate of productivity growth. We concluded this analysis in early August and transmitted its conclusions in a confidential note  to the Treasury on 7 August. This note informed the Treasury that we would be reducing our central forecast for underlying medium-term total factor productivity growth by 0.3 percentage points. We did not revisit that 0.3 percentage point reduction at any subsequent point in the forecast process' (OBR, Letter, 28 November 2025, link).

• On 23 September, ITV reported that ‘the Treasury's working assumption… is that taxes will have to be increased by £30 billion. ITV reported: ‘The Treasury's working assumption, ahead of receiving the first official set of forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), is that taxes will have to be increased by £30 billion in the Budget on November 26' (ITV, 23 September 2025, link).

• On 3 October, the OBR's Round One forecast – which included the impact of the productivity downgrade – ‘showed the Government's current balance target missed by a margin of £2.5 billion'. ‘Our Round 1 forecast was also a full forecast and therefore also included increases in real wages and inflation which offset the impact of the productivity downgrade on receipts. But other changes in the outlook for spending meant that pre-measures borrowing and the current deficit were higher than in our March forecast. In the target year 2029-30, the Round 1 fiscal forecast showed the Government's current balance target missed by a margin of £2.5 billion and the target for public sector financial liabilities (PSNFL) falling missed by a margin of £0.5 billion' (OBR, Letter, 28 November 2025, link).

• On 20 October, the OBR's Round Two forecast showed the Government's current balance target MET by a margin of £2.1 billion. The OBR's Round 2 forecast showed the Government's current balance target met by a margin of £2.1 billion and PSNFL falling by £5.8 billion in the target year (OBR, Letter, 28 November 2025, link).

• On 27 October, The Financial Times reported there was ‘fury in Number 10 and the Treasury' about the OBR's productivity downgrade. The Financial Times reported: ‘Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to be hit by a bigger than expected downgrade to official UK productivity forecasts in the Budget, which analysts believe could deliver a blow to the public finances of more than £20 billion. One Labour official said there was “fury” in Number 10 and the Treasury that the OBR has decided to deliver the downgrade now, rather than before the 2024 general election (The Financial Times, 27 October 2025, link).

• On 31 October, the OBR's Round Three forecast showed the Government's current balance target MET by a margin of £4.2 billion'. The OBR's Round 3 forecast showed the Government's current balance target met by a margin of £4.2 billion and PSNFL falling by £11.1 billion in the target year (OBR, Letter, 28 November 2025, link).

• On 4 November, Rachel Reeves warned the UK's productivity performance ‘is weaker than we previously thought', warning of an Income Tax hike. REEVES: ‘I will not pre-empt those conclusions but it is already clear that the productivity performance… is weaker than previously thought… As I take my decisions on both tax and spend, I will do what is necessary to protect families from high inflation and interest rates, to protect our public services from a return to austerity and to ensure that the economy that we hand down to future generations is secure, with debt under control' (OBR, Letter, 28 November 2025, link).

• On 10 November, Rachel Reeves said it would ‘be possible to stick with the manifesto commitments, but that would require things like deep cuts in capital spending'. REEVES: ‘It would, of course, be possible to stick with the manifesto commitments, but that would require things like deep cuts in capital spending. And the reason why our productivity and our growth has been so poor these last few years is because governments have always taken the easy option to cut investment – in rail and road projects, in energy projects, in digital infrastructure' (The Telegraph, 30 November 2025, link).

• At 2230, on 13 November, The Financial Times first reported that Reeves had ditched income tax plans and set out ‘the Chancellor is now facing a fiscal deterioration of closer to £20 billion than £30 billion' according to ‘people familiar with the process'. The Financial Times reported: ‘Rachel Reeves has opted to ditch plans for an income tax rise after Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts showed a smaller deterioration in the public finances ahead, according to people familiar with the process. The chancellor is now facing a fiscal deterioration of closer to £20bn than £30bn, the people said. The chancellor will want to build an additional buffer on top of that, taking her new headroom to at least £15bn' (The Financial Times, 14 November 2025, link).
• On 14 November 2025, FTSE opened down on the news and the pound fell. 'The FTSE 100 fell 1.1 per cent in early trading, a bigger drop than other European indices. Banks led the declines, with Lloyds and NatWest both down roughly 4 per cent... The pound fell on Friday morning as investors digested the government's change of course on income tax... (Financial Times, 14 November 2025, ​link). 

• • A figure ‘familiar with the process' said ‘the facts have changed'. ‘We had to put everything on the table but as the facts have changed we have to go through the process and look at the package… This is still a tax-raising Budget' (The Financial Times, 14 November 2025, link).
  • Borrowing costs then ended 'highest since mid-October.' 'The UK government bond market is finishing the London trading day slightly worse than even its grim open. The yield on the 10-year gilt reached 4.58 per cent on Friday, its highest since mid-October. Yields move inversely to prices.' (Financial Times, 14 November 2025, ​link). 
• At 0845, on 14 November 2025, (in a no doubt panicked briefing) Bloomberg reported that Reeves dropped plans to raise income tax because of 'better forecasts' according to '[people] asking not to be named discussing sensitive matters'. 'Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves dropped a plan to raise income taxes at the budget later this month because she received better forecasts from the UK's fiscal watchdog than had been widely anticipated, people familiar with the matter said. That leaves a fiscal hole economists were predicting might be as wide as £35 billion ($46 billion) now closer to £20 billion, the people said, asking not to be named discussing sensitive matters. Reeves is therefore expected to have to raise around £30 billion in order both to reverse the deterioration and follow through on her ambition to increase her fiscal headroom.' (Bloomberg, 14 November 2025, link).
• On 28 November, Rachel Reeves said ‘we did look… at Income Tax… that was a responsible thing to do, because we didn't know the size of the downgrade, the productivity'. REEVES: ‘We did look, as everyone knows, at income tax and National Insurance – that was a responsible thing to do – because we didn't know the size of the downgrade, the productivity' (The Telegraph, 30 November 2025, link).

• On 28 November, Richard Hughes took ‘the unusual step… of writing to the Commons Treasury Committee to set out the facts concerning the evolution of the OBR's pre-measures forecasts'. ‘Given the unusual volume of speculation on the subject prior to Budget day, I am taking the unusual step, with the agreement of the Treasury, of writing to the Commons Treasury Committee to set out the facts concerning the evolution of the OBR's pre-measures forecast over the course of the past four months. This is not, and is not intended to become, our usual practice' (OBR, Letter, 28 November 2025, link).
• At 1901, on 28 November 2025, Reeves told Pippa Crerar that she didn't know the size of the downgrade. ‘Speaking before the OBR's intervention, Reeves confirmed that the option of raising income tax rates had remained on the table until well after she had made a speech in the budget run-up in which she highlighted the challenges posed by the downgrade in productivity forecast. “We did look, as everyone knows, at income tax and national insurance, that was a responsible thing to do, because we didn't know the size of the downgrade, the productivity,” she said. After the Treasury had submitted its most important policies to the OBR, “they then update their forecasts, both for growth, for wages. So all of those things moved around,” she added.' (The Guardian, 28 November 2025, link).
• On 30 November, the Shadow Chancellor wrote to the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), urging them to open an investigation into market manipulation by the Chancellor, Number 10 and HM Treasury over their conduct ahead of the budget. Mel Stride wrote on Sunday to the FCA requesting the financial market regulators looks into how confidential ‘market sensitive information appears to have been spun, leaked and misused - and markets, businesses and families to have paid the price' (X, Mel Stride, 30 November 2025, link).

• On 1 December, The Times reported the Cabinet were ‘at no point… told about the reality of the OBR forecasts'. A Cabinet minister told The Times: ‘Why did Keir and Rachel allow the country to believe for so long that we would break our manifesto by putting up income tax by 2p when they would have known that wasn't true? At no point were the cabinet told about the reality of the OBR forecasts. Had we been told, we might have been in a position to advise against setting hares running on income tax and giving the public the impression we are casual about our manifesto commitments. The handling of this budget has been a disaster from start to finish' (The Times, 1 December 2025, link).