The number of children aged under 16 in England is expected to
decline by 6% over the next decade. These declines are expected
to be even faster in Scotland (8%), Wales (10%) and Northern
Ireland (15%). For the UK as a whole, the number of children aged
under 16 is forecast to fall by 800,000 between now and 2035.
In the face of these changes, the government has so far chosen to
protect total schools spending in real terms up to 2029. This
will increase per-pupil funding in real terms. In the future,
policymakers will need to decide whether this remains the right
judgement as pupil numbers continue to fall. Choosing instead to
maintain per-pupil funding and allowing total funding to fall
would generate savings, but require a reduction in the number of
teachers and schools.
Previous policymakers have made different choices when faced with
falling pupil numbers. Broadly, large falls in pupil numbers in
the 1970s and 1980s were met with cuts in the number of teachers,
particularly in secondary schools. In contrast, when pupil
numbers were falling during the 2000s there were actually
increases in teacher numbers.
These are the main conclusions of a new IFS report, published
today and funded by the Nuffield Foundation.
Other key findings include:
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Falling numbers of children mainly reflect reduced
fertility levels. The total fertility rate has fallen
from 1.9 babies per woman in 2010 to 1.4 by 2024, well below
the replacement rate of around 2.1. The Office for National
Statistics (ONS) currently expects fertility to stabilise at
about 1.4–1.5 in the future. However, previous ONS forecasts
over the last 10 years have also predicted stabilisation in
fertility and it has instead continued to decline. It is
therefore possible that falls in pupil numbers could be even
larger than current forecasts.
-
Primary school pupil numbers are falling especially
quickly in Wales, Scotland and London. Between 2016
and 2025, primary school pupil numbers fell by 3% in Scotland,
4% in Wales and 9% in London, as compared with a 1% fall across
the whole of England. Some local areas are facing particularly
large falls. In Wales, the largest falls were in North Wales,
with falls of 9–10% in Gwynedd, Wrexham and Flintshire. In
Scotland, we see falls of 12–13% in Dumfries and Galloway,
North Ayrshire and West Dunbartonshire. In Inner London, most
councils saw falls of 10–20%.
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Primary school closures have been more common in Wales,
Scotland and Northern Ireland, and much less common in
England. Between 2016 and 2025, the number of primary
schools fell by 7% in Wales, 3% in Scotland and 6% in Northern
Ireland, but by close to zero across England. This is not
explained by the faster fall in pupil numbers: even in London,
where primary school pupil numbers fell by 9%, school numbers
have only fallen by 2% to date.
Luke Sibieta, a research fellow at IFS and author of the
report, said:
‘Falls in the number of children will dramatically reshape the
make-up of the UK population. That will have big implications for
the education sector. Policymakers will have to decide how to
respond – will they look to make financial savings through
employing fewer teachers or closing schools? Or will they protect
education spending and deliver smaller class sizes? In practice,
previous governments have gone for a mix of policies, which were
often shaped by the economic and fiscal situation of the time.
‘While closing a school can be problematic for local communities,
maintaining school numbers as they are might not be the best
thing for pupils either. With a dramatic fall in pupil numbers,
some schools might struggle to offer a full breadth of curriculum
options.'
Josh Hillman, Director of Education at the Nuffield
Foundation, said:
‘Education policymakers can use the decline in the number of
children in UK schools as an opportunity to improve teaching and
learning quality. Achieving this will require careful decisions
about teacher recruitment and retention, as well as managing the
possibility of school closures.'
ENDS
Notes to Editor
Demographic change and schools across the UK: lessons from
history is an IFS report by Luke Sibieta.
