Commenting on yesterday's Budget, Jude Hillary, NFER's
Co-Head of Policy and Practice, said:
“Overall, this Budget does not bring substantive change to the
core school funding settlement. This means schools will continue
to operate in a highly challenging context, with rising SEND
costs, falling pupil numbers in many areas, and the prospect of
new delivery and resourcing demands arising from the government's
curriculum and assessment review. This includes expectations
around an expanded enrichment offer and potential further
expectations following the upcoming Schools White Paper.
“We welcome measures on education, family support, and youth
opportunity – particularly the commitment to improving
access to reading through school libraries, alongside new
investment in playgrounds and school buildings.
“We also note the government's decision to scrap the two-child
benefit cap. This measure could ease financial pressure on larger
low-income families and help to reduce child poverty, which is
closely linked to educational disadvantage, lower attainment, and
reduced access to learning opportunities.
“In addition, we strongly support free apprenticeships
training for under-25s in small and medium-sized enterprises
(SMEs) and the Youth Guarantee, which together provide important
pathways into skills, work, and long-term economic participation
for young people.
“However, while these investments are welcome, there remains a
significant challenge around workforce sustainability. As the
Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has uprated its average
earnings forecast for 2026/27, the government's proposed 6.5 per
cent teacher pay uplift over the next three years now sits around
one percentage point below projected earnings growth over the
same period. As a result, the teaching profession risks
losing pay competitiveness with the wider workforce and provides
a further challenge for the government to meet its 6,500 teacher
target.”
