Up to three million UK jobs at risk over the next decade, says new NFER report
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Up to three million UK jobs in declining occupations
could disappear by 2035, largely due to AI and
automation – more than previously forecast. This is one
of many findings published today in an NFER
report saying extensive changes are required to build a
system of lifelong learning from cradle to grave,
ensuring people possess the necessary skills for life and work
in a labour market...Request free trial
Up to three million UK jobs in declining occupations could disappear by 2035, largely due to AI and automation – more than previously forecast. This is one of many findings published today in an NFER report saying extensive changes are required to build a system of lifelong learning from cradle to grave, ensuring people possess the necessary skills for life and work in a labour market drastically altered by technology. The paper says jobs in at-risk occupations such as administrative, secretarial, customer service and machine operations, are declining at a much faster rate than previously predicted, and that between one and three million could vanish by 2035. The publication is the final stage of The Skills Imperative 2035: Essential skills for tomorrow's workforce, a five-year long programme funded by the Nuffield Foundation. The report is the culmination of eight working papers designed to identify what the labour market will look like by 2035, what ‘Essential Employment Skills' (EES) will be most needed to do these jobs, and who is most and least likely to be affected by changes in jobs and skills requirements. It outlines the collective response required to help young people and those already in work.
The report The paper goes on to say that the number of jobs in the labour market as a whole is actually expected to grow by 2035, but that most growth will be in professional and associate professional occupations such as science, engineering and legal roles which heavily utilise these six EES. Most mid- and low-skilled jobs will decline at an increasing pace. Jude Hillary, the programme's Principal Investigator and NFER's Co-Head of UK Policy and Practice, said: “The time has come to tackle this critical challenge head on, and we all have a role to play.
“Meeting “We need to strengthen support in the early years, tackle inequalities in schools, strengthen pathways into growing jobs, and rebuild the adult skills system to deliver growth that benefits everyone.” Josh Hillman, Director of Education at the Nuffield Foundation, said: “The Skills Imperative 2035 is our most significant investment ever in education research. “With accelerating labour market changes impacting both the jobs available in the future and the skills and qualifications needed to do them, its findings could not be more relevant or better timed. “The report's focus is on what are now widely recognised as the essential employment skills that underpin employability and are increasingly sought after in the evolving world of work. It makes a major contribution to our understanding of how to better value, develop, and support these skills. “Crucially, it also provides the education system, employers, and policymakers with evidence to help ensure the workforce can continue to build and use them effectively in a dynamic labour market.” Other findings: A YouGov poll commissioned by the programme in October, suggests the general public may not be aware of the scale of the issues highlighted by our research. Two-thirds (65 per cent) of non-retired people are confident they will develop their skills at the right pace to keep up with changes in jobs and skills requirements over the next decade. The same poll also said:
A shortage of skilled employees at the top end of the labour market could constrain economic growth, while fewer jobs at the bottom could result in many people being out of work. Skills gaps can emerge before the age of five and widen over time. Other recommendations: The Early Years policy response should: Support disadvantaged families to access high-quality early years education and care (ECEC) settings, ensuring their children benefit most from expansions in childcare. Tackle challenges in the Early Years workforce - including pay, qualifications and continuous professional development – to ensure all children can benefit from high-quality ECEC. The school policy response should: Acknowledge EES as a vital part of education – for both life and work - and clearly articulate how EES can be effectively developed as part of teaching a knowledge rich curriculum. Build training on how to develop EES into the Initial Teaching Training and Early Career Framework as well as wider teacher professional development. Expand disadvantaged children's access to extra-curricular activities and introduce funding and expectations for enrichment activities which explicitly build EES. Education to employment: The response from government and further and higher education providers should: Explore what additional incentives or changes to funding and accountability measures might be introduced to encourage, recognise and reward efforts by post-16 providers and universities to develop their students' EES. Evaluate ways of assessing EES that education providers can use to monitor and address student's gaps and learning needs. Adulthood: The response from government and employers should: Reinvigorate the adult skills system, including through a step change in funding, to promote and reduce the barriers to adults retraining and transitioning from declining occupations into growth sectors. Ensure that HR and management practices enable employers and line managers to accurately assess, utilise and develop their workers' existing skills. Scenario profiles We have also produced an additional resource: Skills Imperative 2035: Scenario profiles - Who is most at risk?. This is a series of scenarios highlighting which types of people are most and least at risk of being impacted by changes to the labour market in the coming decade. |