New analysis from the Health Foundation suggests the
government is set to
make significant progress over the parliament
in bringing
down elective waiting
times, but,
on current
trends, would fall just short
of its headline pledge to restore the 18-week
elective care
standard.
Reducing waiting times for elective care
is one of the
government's top
priorities and has
been its
keyhealth pledge since it came to
power, with a commitment to ensure 92% of patients wait less than
18 weeks by the end of
the parliament.
This
ambition
has been
backed
by
additional
funding and a new elective
care recovery plan, which outlined a range of measures, including
increased use of the independent
sector and
the expansion of
surgical hubs and
community
diagnostic
centres.
When Labour was elected,
the waiting list stood at 7.6m,
with just
58.8% of
cases
waiting
less
than
18weeks for
treatment.
To reduce the waiting list
and deliver the 18-week standard, patients waiting for elective
care need to be removed from the waiting list at a faster rate
than new patients are referred onto it. Over the past
year, referrals
onto the waiting list
increased by 1.5%, while removals grew by
2.3%.
As a result, in Labour's first year in office, the percentage
of cases
waiting less than 18 weeks
rose from 58.8% to 61.3%, as the
total waiting list fell by 220,000, from 7.6 million to 7.4
million.
The Health Foundation's latest projections, based on
trends over the past year, show that by July
2029, the
elective waiting list would fall
to 4.7 million, with 92%
of cases
waiting less
than 20.3 weeks by July 2029. This
would be a
significant achievement, but is just short
of the government's target.
The Foundation also examined progress against
the government's
three
interim targets
for March 2026,
set
out in the elective recovery
plan and recent NHS planning guidance, finding (on
current trends) that:
Several factors could influence progress,
most notably the rate
of referrals, which could rise
in the coming years. Other factors include the rate of
‘unreported
removals'
-
waits
that
are removed from the waiting
list without being reported as a completed pathway.
The
reasons for
these removals
are not well understood
and could
reflect
delays in recording pathways
as completed or
anomalies, such as
patients not attending
appointments.
In addition, further
industrial action by NHS staff poses a risk to productivity and
progress.
Dr Francesca
Cavallaro, Senior Analytical Manager at the Health Foundation,
said:
‘The
government has
clearly made
progress in
reducing NHS
waiting times. But on current
trends,
our analysis
shows that the NHS would just
fall short of meeting the
18-week standard by the end of the parliament.
‘The scale
of the challenge remains significant, and even
getting close to meeting the target would be a
considerable
achievement.
This
will require not just more
activity, but smarter use of resources and continued investment
in the NHS workforce and infrastructure.
And
there are several
factors that could
hold back progress,
including if future
referrals rise faster than expected
and
the potential impact of
further industrial action.
‘Placing so
much emphasis
on the
18-week
target risks
slower progress
on
other
key
issues, such as
improving access to
GPs,
which we know is the public's
top priority for the
NHS.'
