A new NFER blog, the first in a
two-part blog series considering the challenges impacting schools
as they start the new term, explores how funding pressures and
demographic change are affecting school leaders.
The blog, authored by NFER Research Director, Jenna Julius, and
Researcher, Gustavo Henndel Lopes, draws on responses from the
June 2025 NFER Teacher Voice Omnibus Survey of over 350
senior leaders.
Key finding show:
School finances remained largely stable in
2024/25: A substantial minority of primary school senior
leaders (at 21 per cent) continue to say they had or were on
track to have an in-year budget deficit that they expect to fund
by a negative revenue balance in 2024/25 (as they have no
reserves to cover it). This compares to nine per cent among
secondary schools. This suggests that a sizeable minority of
schools are likely to be returning in September 2025 in
precarious financial circumstances.
School budgets and provision set to
worsen in 2025/26: Seventy-one per cent of primary and
65 per cent of secondary leaders are anticipating an in-year
budget deficit in 2025/26. This represents a marked deterioration
in secondary schools' budget outlooks compared to 2023/24. Among
schools anticipating an in-year budget deficit for 2025/26,
nearly three in four say they are likely to cut provision, such
as reducing the curriculum offer.
Both primary and secondary school leaders are concerned
about the pupil demographic decline: Three in five
primary school leaders in 2024/25 reported being somewhat or very
concerned about the impact of declining pupil numbers on their
settings. More strikingly, around two in five secondary senior
leaders said they were somewhat or very concerned about the
looming impact on their schools. This is despite secondary pupil
numbers not being forecast to dip for a couple more years.
Schools are making staff cuts and adjustments in response
to concerns about pupil demographic change: Sixty-nine
per cent of primary and 65 per cent of secondary leaders who said
they were at least slightly concerned about demographic change
reported cutting support staff in response. Forty-one per cent of
primary and 58 per cent of secondary leaders with similar levels
of concern reported cutting teaching staff. Leaders also reported
reducing extracurricular activities, narrowing the curriculum,
and in some primary schools, increasing the use of mixed-age
classes.
A sizeable minority of senior leaders
are planning to merge or close their schools: Twenty per
cent of primary and 10 per cent of secondary leaders who said
they were at least slightly concerned about demographic change,
reported they had explored, or were considering exploring,
merging with another school. Seven per cent of primary and six
per cent of secondary leaders who said they were at least
slightly concerned about demographic change, said they had
discussed, or were considering discussing, closing their
schools.
Commenting on the findings, Jenna Julius, Researcher
Director at NFER, said:
“The financial landscape remains challenging, especially for
primary schools, and many leaders expect things to worsen in the
year ahead. Falling pupil numbers are already driving difficult
choices and adjustments - from cutting staff to narrowing the
curriculum, to considering mergers or even closure.
“Without more proactive system-level planning and support at both
local and national government levels, these pressures risk the
quality of education and pupils' experiences in the years
ahead.”
The second blog in this two-part series further explores the
challenges faced by schools as they return in September 2025 by
investigating the levels of pupil and staff needs and support
received.
