Revealed: UK’s richest will pollute 22 times more than poorest from travel by 2035, warns IPPR

• The richest 4 per cent are on track to emit 22 times more carbon from their travel than the poorest in coming decade 

• Current policy risks missing climate targets, increasing traffic and worsening emissions inequality 

• IPPR proposes a fairer pathway: reforming transport taxes, investing in public transport, and cutting excess flying 

New analysis from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warns that domestic travel emissions inequality is set to worsen dramatically over the next decade, despite overall emissions falling. 

Growing emissions inequality is driven by the largely unrestricted mobility of affluent groups, who travel six times further a year on average than those on the lowest incomes. 

The richest 4 per cent of UK households are on course to emit 13 times more carbon than the poorest 14 per cent from their domestic travel by 2035 – up from a tenfold gap today. 

If you include international travel, the richest are expected to emit 22 times more than the poorest – up from 20 times today. 

The think tank finds that the poorest in society are on track to cut their emissions the quickest, and the wealthiest will remain the highest emitters in absolute terms, despite their ability to afford new electric vehicles (EVs). 

Additionally, while the wealthiest will benefit from lower transport costs due to cheaper EV running costs, the lowest income groups face rising costs as public transport fares continue to increase.  

The government's current approach places minimal demands on high emitters and fails to address the widening gap in domestic transport emissions. 

Under existing policy, traffic is projected to rise by 12 per cent by 2035. In contrast, IPPR's proposed ‘fairer pathway' would reduce traffic by 25 per cent, cut emissions faster, and improve access to transport for low-income households. 

The pathway targets excess car use and domestic flying among the wealthiest, while expanding public transport and active travel options for all. Crucially, it also calls for reducing the need to travel by improving access to jobs, services, and amenities locally, especially for those currently locked into car dependency. 

It places greater responsibility on those who contribute most to emissions and have the greatest resources to change their travel habits, ensuring that climate action benefits everyone. 

Key recommendations include: 

• Invest in public transport: increase funding for buses to at least £3.1 billion and capital spending on active travel to at least £2 billion a year by 2030 

• Reform fuel taxation to support the transition from fossil fuels: Gradually increase fuel duty and Vehicle Excise Duty to reflect the environmental costs of petrol and diesel use 

• Pause expansion of airports and major roads: Introduce a moratorium on new airport capacity and large-scale road building 

Stephen Frost, head of transport policy at IPPR, said: 

“The richest households are driving the bulk of emissions, and they have the greatest capacity to change. Fairness isn't a barrier to climate action – it's the key to unlocking it. A fairer approach doesn't just cut carbon faster, it builds a healthier, more inclusive transport system for everyone.” 

ENDS 

NOTES TO EDITORS  

• Read the full report here: http://www.ippr.org/articles/fairer-is-faster 

• This analysis is based on travel behaviour data from the England National Travel Survey and the Scottish Household Survey, covering the years 2013 to 2021. The data has been weighted to ensure it is representative of the Welsh and Northern Irish populations, providing full UK coverage. The modelling reflects known limitations in survey methods, meaning the actual divide between the most and least mobile groups is likely even greater. The analysis also includes a qualitative assessment of how different income groups are likely to respond to current policy and the Climate Change Committee's Seventh Carbon Budget advice. 

• Our transport profiles show how the average domestic transport emissions of people matching each profile change over time, under different scenarios. People matching our profiles will be reducing their emissions at different rates. For example, some members of our most affluent group will be cutting their emissions from domestic transport faster than others, for example by buying an EV, but the average for the group remains high because many of its members are not reducing their emissions at all (or may actually be increasing them).