Retailers reported that sales volumes fell at a firm rate in the
year to July, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades
Survey. The sales downturn has now stretched into a tenth
consecutive month, underscoring the persistently challenging
trading conditionsfacing the sector.
Annual sales volumes are expected to decline at a broadly similar
pace next month.
Key findings included:
-
Retail sales volumes contracted at a strong
rate in the year to July, but the pace of decline slowed from
June (weighted balance of -34% from -46% in June). Retailers
expect sales to fall at a broadly similar pace next month
(-31%).
-
Sales for the time of year were judged to be
“poor” in July, but to a considerably lesser extent than last
month (-10% from -37% in June). However, next month's sales are
expected to fall short of seasonal norms to a greater degree
(-36%).
-
Online retail sales volumes grew marginally in
the year to July, marking the third month in a row of expansion
(+4% from +6% in June). Internet sales are expected to rise at
the same pace in August (+4%).
-
Wholesale sales volumes fell in the year to
July at a similarly firm rate to last month (-32% from -34%
from June) and are expected to decline at a comparable pace in
August (-30%).
-
Total distribution sales volumes (including
retail, wholesale, and motor trades) fell at the same fast rate
as last month in the year to July (-39%) and are expected to
contract at a slightly slower pace in August (-34%).
Martin Sartorius, Principal Economist, CBI,
said:
“Retail annual sales volumes continued to fall in July, although
the pace of declinemoderated from June's sharp drop. Firms
reported that elevated price pressures –driven by rising labour
costs – and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on household
demand, which has contributed to sales volumes falling since
October 2024.These trends of weak demand and uncertainty were
mirrored across the widerdistribution sector, with wholesale and
motor trades also seeing declining sales.
“With long-term strategic ambitions outlined, the government must
now seek to build shorter term confidence in its growth mission.
It can do this by collaborating with business to deliver an
Autumn Budget that acknowledges the burden firms are facingand
sets clear policy delivery targets. This includes providing
clarity on how the government will deliver its action plan to
tackle regulatory barriers to growth, position businesses to
invest in the people they need through a flexible Growth and
Skills Levy,and find an appropriate landing zone for the
Employment Rights Bill.”
In addition, data from the survey showed:
-
Retail orders placed upon suppliers declined
at a more moderate pace in the year to July (-21% from -51% in
June). Retailers expect to reduce orders at a slightly slower
rate in August (-16%).
-
Retail stock volumes in relation to expected
demand dipped below the long-run average in July (+12%
from +26% in June; long-run average +17%) and are set to remain
at a broadly similar position next month (+10%).
-
Motor trade sales volumes contracted in the
year to July at the sharpest rate since June 2020 (-77% from
-37% in June). Motor traders anticipate another fast sales
decline next month (-57%).
The full report is attached.
28 July 2025
Notes to Editors:
The survey was in field between 27 June and 15 July. There were
163 respondents, of which 56 were retailers and 91 were
wholesalers.
A balance is the weighted difference between the percentage of
firms reporting an increase and those reporting a decrease.
