The number of people claiming health-related benefits in England
has risen substantially in recent years, coinciding with a
pronounced increase in NHS waiting lists and waiting times. It is
sometimes suggested that these two phenomena might be linked.
Yet new analysis by IFS researchers, published today, utilising
newly constructed data at the very local level across England,
finds no evidence that rising waiting lists for
pre-planned hospital treatment have been a major driver of
increases in the receipt of health-related benefits by
working-age adults since the start of the pandemic.
Local areas that experienced larger increases in NHS waits for
elective hospital treatment between 2019 and 2024 did not, on
average, experience meaningfully larger increases in disability
or incapacity benefit claims. The same is true for areas that
experienced larger increases in waiting times for NHS talking
therapies. There are some signs of a possible relationship
between NHS waits and disability benefit claims for mental health
and musculoskeletal conditions. Taken on face value, these (weak)
relationships suggest that longer NHS waits could perhaps explain
something like 7% of the national increase in benefit claims for
those specific conditions – though even that is very likely an
overestimate.
Data limitations make it impossible to establish definitively and
conclusively whether longer NHS waits have a causal
impact on health-related benefit claims. The analysis comes with
caveats. But taken as a whole, the results strongly
indicate that deteriorating NHS performance – at least
as captured by rising NHS waiting lists for elective hospital
treatment or for talking therapies – is to blame, at
most, for a small fraction of the overall increase in receipt of
health-related benefits among working-age individuals in recent
years.
This is the central conclusion of new research published today by
the Institute for Fiscal Studies and funded by the Joseph
Rowntree Foundation.
Max Warner, Senior Research Economist at IFS and an
author of the report, said:
‘Our new analysis very strongly suggests that rising NHS waiting
lists for elective hospital treatment have not been a major
factor behind recent increases in the number of working-age
adults receiving benefits for ill health. The main explanation
for rising benefit claims almost certainly lies elsewhere.
Reducing hospital waiting times is a sensible policy objective,
not least as it would benefit those who use the NHS – but we
shouldn't necessarily expect it to also deliver a significant
reduction in health-related benefit claims. That's a separate
policy nut to crack.'
Iain Porter, Senior Policy Adviser at the Joseph Rowntree
Foundation, said:
‘Waiting times for treatment and people in need of disability
benefits are both indicators that the nation's health is in need
of serious attention. It is clear that the government needs to
fully understand what is leading to widespread and persistent
physical and mental health problems in order to take the
comprehensive action needed. Although conclusions cannot be drawn
about the impact of broader NHS services such as primary care,
this work suggests that longer waiting times for elective
hospital treatment are not the driving factor behind growing need
for disability benefits. It's imperative that we understand and
tackle the underlying social and economic causes of poor health.'
