National Audit Office report: Government's 6,500-teacher pledge faces uncertainties as student numbers surge
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The government budgeted £700 million last year for initiatives to
address the critical, nationwide teacher shortage, but its latest
data shows 4,000 vacancies across secondary schools and further
education colleges1, says the NAO. The new report by the
independent public spending watchdog assesses whether DfE is
achieving value for money through its work to recruit and retain
teachers for state-funded secondary schools and further education
colleges in England. In July...Request free trial
The government budgeted £700 million last year for initiatives to address the critical, nationwide teacher shortage, but its latest data shows 4,000 vacancies across secondary schools and further education colleges1, says the NAO. The new report by the independent public spending watchdog assesses whether DfE is achieving value for money through its work to recruit and retain teachers for state-funded secondary schools and further education colleges in England. In July 2024 the government pledged to recruit 6,500 additional teachers by the end of the current Parliament – Spring 2029 at the latest – but the NAO found, given the forthcoming spending review, it is not yet clear to what extent this will address current or future shortages. Since 2018, more teachers have been recruited than left the profession each year; however, there is a growing number of secondary school pupils, which is expected to peak in 2028, and teacher numbers are already failing to increase in line with students. Between 2015/16 and 2023/24, secondary teacher numbers increased by 3% to 217,600, while secondary school pupils rose by 15% to 3.7 million. Growing pupil numbers will later affect further education, with DfE estimating a need for between 8,400 and 12,400 more teachers by 2028/29. The most cited reasons schoolteachers leave the profession is due to work overload or stress2. In 2022/23, 19,900 secondary teachers left, compared with 14,700 in 2019/20 and 18,500 in 2018/19, the year before the pandemic. The proportion of secondary teachers retiring has decreased, from 33% in 2010/11 (6,900) to 7% in 2022/23 (1,500), meaning people are leaving teaching but continuing to work. Only 8,700 newly qualified teachers started work in 2023/24, the lowest number since 2010/11, while 8,200 teachers returned to the profession. DfE has a good understanding of secondary school teacher numbers through an annual census, but its future projections do not account for existing shortages or indicate total number of teachers needed. The further education model assesses workforce needs relative to teacher numbers in 2020/21. DfE has missed its target for those starting to train as secondary school teachers in nine of the ten previous years, missing its targets for 13 out of 18 subjects in 2024/25 including physics (31% of target met), computing (37% of target met), and foreign languages (43% of target met). It exceeded targets for classics, history, biology, physical education, and English. In 2024-25, DfE budgeted to spend £700 million across a range of financial and non-financial initiatives3, to try to improve teacher recruitment and retention. These include training bursaries, opportunities for career development and retention payments of up to £6,000 to those qualified to teach secondary school maths, physics, chemistry or computing who choose to teach in disadvantaged schools in the first five years of their career. Schools with more disadvantaged pupils tend to have greater staff turnover and a higher number of unfilled vacancies. In 2023/24, secondary schools with the highest percentage of disadvantaged pupils had just over a third of teachers with five years or less experience, compared with 20% in schools with the lowest percentage of disadvantaged pupils. Teachers in further education colleges earn £10,000 less on average than secondary school teachers, making recruitment even harder. Colleges set their own pay but have said that DfE's funding increases of £285 million for 2024-25 and £300 million for 2025-26 will mostly cover costs from increased student numbers. The government has funded a 5.5% pay rise for all schoolteachers in 2024/25, representing £1.2 billion extra funding. DfE sees fair pay as critical for ensuring enough teachers in schools and colleges. This was backed up by stakeholders who submitted evidence to the NAO, who identified competitive pay as the most effective way to improve teacher retention and recruitment. Government needs to consider pay decisions for long-term affordability, pending a multi-year spending review. The NAO has several recommendations to help DfE address the continuing challenges with teacher recruitment and retention, including:
Gareth Davies, head of the NAO, said: “Despite the government's pledge, secondary schools and further education colleges face a challenge in securing enough teachers to support growing student numbers. DfE must continue efforts to look at this as a cross-system issue and improve further education workforce data, to allocate funding effectively and ensure all children and young people achieve the best outcomes.”
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