Ukraine has every right to determine its own future: UK Statement to the OSCE

UK Military Advisor, Joby Rimmer, says Russia's war of aggression has achieved little except the catastrophic loss of life, the loss of Russia's military credibility, and the loss of Russia's international reputation.

Thank you, Mr Chair. Sadly, we have started this year like the last, and the overwhelming concern of this forum remains: Russia's ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. The UK remains resolutely committed to supporting the people of Ukraine as they defend their homeland. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the UK has provided over £3 billion per year in military, humanitarian and financial assistance, and this support will continue for as long as necessary to ensure Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity are fully restored.

What has Russia accomplished so far? Russia's full-scale invasion has been nothing short of a disaster. The Russian state's bold assertion that the subjugation of Ukraine would be accomplished within a matter of days was made almost three years ago. Having failed in pursuit of its own strategic aims, the campaign has achieved little except the catastrophic loss of life on both sides, the loss of Russia's military credibility, and the loss of Russia's international reputation.

The UN estimates that more than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians and some 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed as a direct result of Russian aggression. Independent reports suggest approximately 830,000 Russian casualties, a number that demonstrates President Putin's disregard for his own countrymen sent to fight in a war they did not choose. On 29th January alone, the Russian military lost 1,670 men with Russian casualties for January averaging over 1,500 per day. At the current rate of loss, Russia will have suffered over 1 million casualties by June 2025. As Russian casualties mount, Russian recruitment in Moscow has reduced, with military recruitment currently at 40 personnel a day, five times lower than the Summer-Autumn 2024 average of 200 recruits a day. Half of these recruits are reportedly indebted Russians and foreign nationals. The direct participation of DPRK troops in combat operations is another dangerous expansion of Putin's illegal war. Of the 11,000 DPRK troops deployed in Kursk, reporting indicates that 4,000 are already casualties, including 1,000 fatalities.

What has Russia accomplished militarily? Reports from the region paint a stark image of Russian military mediocrity. Russia has reportedly now lost over 3,700 Main Battle Tanks, over 8,000 armoured vehicles and 1,800 pieces of artillery. Any marginal Russian gains around Donetsk, Toretsk and Pokrovsk have been extremely costly, with progress augmented through the cynical use of glide bombs, drone and missile attacks, causing widespread damage to local housing, medical facilities and critical infrastructure. Independent reports state that Russia launched over 1,250 aerial bombs and over 1,000 attack drones into Ukraine in the last week of January. Nearly all resulted in civilian casualties.

Last week, the Ukrainian army's general staff reported that Russian forces bombed a boarding school in an area of Kursk under Ukrainian control, where civilians were sheltering and preparing to evacuate. Four people were killed and dozens injured. Russia's continued disregard for human life cannot, and will not, be overlooked.

Russia is also suffering the cost to its international reputation. The war in Ukraine clearly violates the UN Charter and contravenes our shared commitments of the Helsinki Final Act – respecting sovereignty, territorial integrity and the non-use of force. This full-scale invasion is not just an illegal act that contravenes international law; it is a serious miscalculation and one that fundamentally represents loss; most appallingly, the loss of human life, the loss of Russia's international reputation, and the loss of Russia's military credibility.

Finally, the UK remains firm in its belief that any path to peace must be grounded in a position of strength for Ukraine. Ukraine must not be coerced into peace talks under duress or pressure from the aggressor. Ukraine has every right to determine its future, and its right to self-determination must be upheld. The UK is proud to be a steadfast friend of Ukraine and will not rest until Ukraine achieves peace on its own terms – Russia must cease hostilities in Ukraine and remove its forces from Ukraine's internationally recognised borders. Thank you, Mr Chair.