Today's NDC Synthesis Report must be a turning point, ending the
era of inadequacy and sparking a new age of acceleration, with
much bolder new national climate plans from every country due
next year.
The report's findings are stark but not surprising – current
national climate plans fall miles short of what's needed to stop
global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking
billions of lives and livelihoods across every country.
By contrast, much bolder new national climate plans can not only
avert climate chaos – done well, they can be transformational for
people and prosperity in every nation.
Bolder new climate plans are vital to drive stronger investment,
economic growth and opportunity, more jobs, less pollution,
better health and lower costs, more secure and affordable clean
energy, among many others benefits.
As expected, with countries currently working to put together new
NDCs due next year, this year's report shows only fractional
progress compared to what is expected – and urgently needed –
next year.
Current plans combined – if fully implemented – would see
emissions of 51.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2030 - a level
only 2.6 per cent lower than in 2019. Greenhouse gas
pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic
trainwreck for every country, without exception.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes that
greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to
2019 levels. By 2035, net global greenhouse gas emissions need to
be cut by 60% compared to 2019 levels. This is critical to
limiting global heating to 1.5°C this century to avert the worst
climate impacts. Every fraction of a degree matters, as climate
disasters get rapidly worse.
The next round of national climate plans must deliver a dramatic
step up in climate action and ambition.
While these plans are not one-size-fits-all, and are nationally
determined, they all need to pass the ABC test:
They must have ambitious new emissions
targets that are economy-wide, covering all greenhouse gases,
keeping 1.5 degrees alive.
They must be broken down into sectors and gases.
And they must be credible, backed up by
substantive regulations, laws, and funding to ensure goals are
met and plans implemented.
New NDCs should also detail adaptation priorities and investments
to protect critical sectors, infrastructure and people from
climate impacts, and support and align with National Adaptation
Plan processes.
They should have a time horizon to 2035, with much stronger 2030
targets to drive the deep emissions cuts needed globally this
decade.
UN Climate Change – working closely with the wider UN system – is
providing a range of practical support, particularly for
vulnerable and developing countries, recognizing the severe
capacity-constraints and other headwinds that many face.
As these new national climate plans will be among the most
important policy documents so far this century, therefore UN
Climate Change will deliver a series of events next year to
support countries delivery of NDCs and engage the global public
in the conversation about their delivery. Further details will be
announced at COP29.
COP29 is a vital moment in the world's climate fight, and today's
data is a blunt reminder of why COP29 must stand and
deliver.
Governments must come to Baku ready to convert the pledges in the
UAE Consensus at COP28 – tripling renewables, the global
goal on adaptation, transitioning away from all fossil fuels –
into real-world, real-economy results, protecting people and
their livelihoods everywhere.
COP29 must be an enabling COP, delivering concrete and ambitious
outcomes on climate finance that take account of developing
country needs, recognizing that such support is core business to
protect every nation and the global economy from rampaging
climate impacts.
The last generation of NDCs set the signal for unstoppable
change. New NDCs next year must outline a clear path to make it
happen – by scaling up renewable energy, strengthening adaptation
and accelerating the transition to low-carbon economies
everywhere.
