NFER blog: Pupil projections in England - What happens when pupil numbers fall?

Today NFER has published the second in a three-part blog series that looks at pupil projections in England. This blog  looks specifically at where primary pupil numbers have already fallen sharply, the characteristics of the schools affected, and how the data suggests schools have responded when faced with such falls. 

The research finds:  

• The number of state primary pupil numbers are falling. London largely accounts for the national fall by itself, although most regions have seen some fall since 2017/18. 

• Primary schools with lower Ofsted ratings have seen larger falls to primary pupil numbers than schools with higher ratings. 

• There is some evidence that schools which have been consistently academies have been less impacted than schools that have been consistently maintained since 2017/18. 

• When pupil numbers fall sharply, schools tend to prioritise reducing the overall number of classes, rather than the number of pupils per class.   

• Revenue reserves data shows whilst there are funding pressures nationally, these have been exacerbated in areas of London with the largest falls in pupil numbers.  

 Commenting on the research, Michael Scott, Senior Economist at NFER and blog co-author, said.  

“Pupil numbers are falling in primary schools and this can put serious pressure on schools' finances, as our analysis shows.  

“Primary schools in London have 50,000 less pupils than they did in 2017/18 and the areas with the largest falls have seen schools moving into deficits at a much faster rate than the national average.  

“Our analysis also shows falling numbers are not always felt equally. Primary schools with worse Ofsted grades have tended to see larger falls than those with better grades, putting additional pressure on those schools and their leaders. We also found that, in some circumstances, academies haven't seen such large declines as local maintained schools. 

“We know falling pupil numbers is a key issue facing the primary school system. DfE's latest pupil projections suggest numbers are going to continue to fall in future. Further work is urgently needed to understand how the government, LAs and schools can respond to falling numbers to achieve the best outcomes for children everywhere.” 

The first blog in this series established that primary school pupil numbers are projected to decline over the coming years, albeit uncertainly. The third and final blog will look at how local authorities are anticipating and planning for expected declines.