NFER report suggests 12 million people work in ‘high-risk' occupations which are projected to decline over the next decade

A new report warns that around 12 million people in England work in occupations such as administrative, secretarial and sales roles, which are projected to decline by 2035.

The analysis adds that over one million jobs could be lost from these declining – or ‘high-risk' - occupations.

Skilled tradespeople working in construction or electrical work are also among workers whose roles are likely to decline due to technological, demographic and environmental changes, according to the study.

These workers are at greatest risk of falling out of the labour market or experiencing less wage growth than other workers. These types of occupations could shrink by five to 10 per cent by 2035, with workers in these roles increasingly needing to move to growing occupations to stay in the labour market.

‘Shifting sands: Anticipating changes in the future labour market and supporting the workers at greatest risk' is the newest report in a suite of papers under the NFER-led Skills Imperative 2035: Essential skills for tomorrow's workforce, a five-year research programme funded by the Nuffield Foundation. 

There is unlikely to be enough growth in roles that require similar levels of qualifications and skills, to those which are high-risk (which the report calls ‘lateral' moves). Examples of such jobs include care workers and customer service agents.

The findings show that there will be more growth in ‘upgrade' occupations, which are largely professional jobs such as teaching and IT work. On average, these roles require higher skill and higher qualification levels than workers in high-risk occupations currently possess.

Over the past decade, only a small proportion of workers in high-risk occupations have successfully made lateral moves or upgrades. When workers in high-risk occupations changed jobs, around 75 per cent moved into other high-risk roles.

Analysis in the report suggest qualifications are a strong predictor of people being able to make lateral moves and particularly upgrades. People who have worked in high-risk occupations were far more likely to move into growing occupations over the past decade if they had a higher education qualification or equivalent. The report also found some evidence training is associated with being able to make these moves.

Older workers in high-risk roles, such as those in retail jobs, are much less likely to move into low-risk growing occupations. Over 40 per cent of workers in high-risk occupations are aged above 45, but only around 15 per cent of such workers that make a change to low-risk roles fall into that age band.

The report also illustrates that people in London and the South are more likely to move from high-risk to low-risk roles. This suggests workers outside of these areas have less opportunity to leave declining occupations.

Jude Hillary, the programme's Principal Investigator and NFER's Co-Head of UK Policy and Practice, said:

“This latest piece of research highlights that millions of workers are in occupations which are likely to decline due to anticipated changes in the jobs that will exist in future and the skills needed to do them. Workers who are displaced are likely to face significant challenges in getting back into the labour market.

“Workers over 45 and those outside London and South East regions, whose jobs are displaced, are amongst those who are likely to face the biggest obstacles in getting back into the labour market.

“It is absolutely vital that workers who face displacement from the labour market are given the support they need – for example to develop their skills and improve their qualifications – so they can embrace opportunities in growing areas of the economy and re-enter the workforce.

“Mitigating the impact of the changing labour market is essential and suitable solutions must be explored.”

Dr Emily Tanner, Programme Head at the Nuffield Foundation said:

"This report provides valuable insight for national and local policy makers charged with 'breaking down barriers to opportunity', as well as to the business community for workforce planning. It underlines the need to reduce inequalities in educational outcomes and to increase opportunities for lifelong learning at all levels."

Robert West, CBI Head of Education and Skills, said:

“The world of work is changing rapidly. That's why we support all efforts to better understand the essential skills required for the future. It is only through that kind of insight and understanding that we can really sharpen our focus on making the skills system more responsive to the needs of business and the economy.”

Other report findings:

• Workers in high-risk occupations require the lowest average skill levels in their current jobs, and the lowest levels of transferable Essential Employment Skills (EES)*. They also possess the lowest levels of EES, on average. Whilst some of these workers report not currently utilising all the EES they possess, they are generally not well positioned to move into growing areas of the labour market that require higher levels of skills.
• According to the research, people under 25 are more likely to be in the highest risk occupations than any other age group. This is largely because the at-risk roles are often entry level jobs or jobs that people may do alongside studying at university or college. A decline in entry level jobs may reduce the job opportunities open to young people that enter the labour market without the right skills and higher-level qualifications.
• Of workers in high-risk occupations, just over a quarter are qualified at Level 4+ (equivalent to at least the first year of a degree). By contrast, over 50 per cent of workers in growing occupations have Level 4+ qualifications.]

Later this year, we will be holding a roundtable to bring together perspectives from stakeholders across the skills system to discuss the policy and other implications of our findings from across the research programme. During this we will identify actions to support workers in high-risk occupations to successfully transition into growing lower risk occupations or get back into the labour market. Following the roundtable, we will publish a report summarising key points and recommendations.

In later phases of the Skills Imperative 2035 programme, NFER will conduct research on the challenges of how to increase young people's average skill levels, so that more are equipped with the right skills and qualifications to enter growing occupations.