Revealed: School exclusions and suspensions rise by a fifth last year, finds new IPPR report

Suspensions and exclusions across all schools and all year groups in England are predicted to have risen by over 20 per cent last year compared to the previous year, according to a new report from IPPR and The Difference. 

Researchers compared the first two terms of 2022/23 with a sample from the same period in 2023/24. They additionally found that the suspension and exclusion rate for secondary school children (year seven to year 11) increased from 14.3 per cent to 17 per cent, also a rise of one fifth. 

Further new analysis of 2022/23 data also reveals that a record 32 million days of learning were lost by pupils of all ages, due to a combination of unauthorised absence and exclusions. 

That number is 72 per cent higher than in 2018/19 (the last full school year before the pandemic) and is the equivalent of every pupil in two cities the size of Liverpool missing school every day for a year. 

This new report reveals that many widely-used estimations of exclusions and absences have failed to capture the full picture of children losing learning nationally. It introduces an ‘exclusions continuum' covering 14 types of ‘losing learning' (including exclusions, suspensions and unauthorised absences) and finds that the most vulnerable children are most likely to miss out across this continuum. 

Poorer children, children known to social services, those with school-identified special educational needs (SEN) and/or mental ill health, and children from ethnic minority backgrounds disproportionately experience missed learning. The report found:  

• The poorest students - those who get free school meals - are nearly five times more likely to be permanently excluded and four times more likely to be suspended than their peers.
• The poorest areas of England have the highest rates of lost learning through unauthorised absences and suspensions. Middlesbrough has a suspension rate of three times the national average (28.18 per cent compared to the national average of 9.33 per cent).
• Children from some ethnic minority backgrounds are disproportionately being placed in alternative provision (AP) away from mainstream schools. These include children from Black Caribbean (2.5 times more likely than average), Romani (Gypsy), Roma and Irish Traveller (four times more likely), and children with mixed Black Caribbean and white heritage (2.5 times).
• Children with mental health needs are three times as likely to have to move schools than their peers; and those with mental health needs so severe that it is classified as a SEN are 17 times more likely to be educated in AP schools serving excluded pupils, than they are to appear in the general population.
• Children interacting with social services because their lives are unsafe are permanently excluded at eight times, and severely absent from school at over five times, the national rate.
• Children with school-identified SEN are five times more likely to be permanently excluded than their peers without SEN. 

When children can no longer be educated in mainstream schools, money is flowing away from state-funded school placements into private-hands, causing more costs to the state. There has been a 56 per cent rise in children leaving state-run provision for privately-run provision paid for by the state since the pandemic, with costs soaring up to £111,000 a year per child. This is double the cost of a placement in a state setting. 

The report also highlights the long-term consequences of lost learning, including the economic and social costs: 

• Cost to the state: New analysis for this report finds lifetime costs of at least £170,000 per child directly associated with permanent exclusion - for last year's excluded cohort alone this means costs to the state of £1.6 billion over a lifetime.
• Youth violence: Half of young people serving custodial sentences are persistently absent from school and three-quarters have been suspended at least once.
• The attainment gap: 90 per cent of excluded pupils do not achieve a pass in GCSE Maths or English.
• Youth unemployment: There are overwhelmingly poor outcomes for excluded children, with over half of children not entered for maths and English GCSEs in alternative provision schools and fewer than 5 per cent gaining a standard pass. 

A new Who's Losing Learning Solutions Council will set out how the education sector should respond to this challenge. Between September 2024 and March 2025, the council will hear evidence from school leaders, parents and organisations working with children losing learning. It will identify promising work currently happening in pockets across the country and advise on how these ought to be translated into national policy solutions.  

Chaired by Pepe Di'Iasio, general secretary of ASCL, the council brings together experts from across civil society, including multi academy trust leaders Sir Dan Moynihan and Liz Robinson; professors of mental health and social work, Peter Fonagy and Carlene Firman; Children's Commissioner Dame Rachel de Souza; and the Bishop of Dover, Rose Hudson-Wilkin.  

Kiran Gill, IPPR associate fellow and CEO of The Difference, said: 

“The past four years, post-pandemic, have seen an alarming rise in children losing learning. We should all be worried about the social injustice that the most marginalised children - who already have the biggest barriers to opportunity outside of school - are those most likely to be not in classrooms through absence, suspension and exclusion. 

“Over the next six months, the Who's Losing Learning Coalition will be hearing evidence on how mainstream schools can evolve to better serve the needs of all children – especially those struggling with their mental health.  

“We know that many teachers and school leaders are stepping towards this challenge, and innovating in their classrooms and communities. But too often they are doing this against the tide of the incentives around them, without the professional development and practice sharing they most need or at a remove from the services they need most to collaborate with. 

“In our second solutions paper we'll put forward solutions to change this picture, built from the hard work already going on up and down the country, against the odds.” 

Efua Poku-Amanfo, IPPR research fellow, said: 

“Thousands of children across the country are losing out on learning – and it's rising. The most vulnerable children are being let down and we're concerned this will become an endemic problem for society as well as the potential damage it could do to the prospects for young people.  

“Students from lower income backgrounds, with special educational needs and those with mental health issues are amongst the most likely to lose out on learning. Change is long overdue and it's time to look towards building more effective policies solutions to fix this crisis of lost learning.”  

Pepe Di'Iasio, ASCL General Secretary and Chair of the Who's Losing Learning Solutions Council said: 

“This sobering report on school exclusions suggests we have lost sight of what we should care about most: the wellbeing and success of those children who experience hardship of one form or another. For too long as a system we've considered the needs of these young people last rather than first. Young people have one chance at a good education and if we are to improve their attainment and their life opportunities, we must reduce exclusions of all kinds.   

“In the months ahead, I am proud to be chairing a council of advisors drawn across education and civil society to hear from teachers, their students and their families and to build together a response to the shocking picture in this report. Going forward, we need policy which ensures that those children who stand to gain the most from school do not continue to get the least.” 

ENDS 

NOTES TO EDITORS 

• Who is Losing Learning? The case for reducing exclusion from mainstream schools by Kiran Gill, Shaun Brown, Cristín O'Brien, Jenny Graham and Efua Poku-Amanfo will be published at 0001 on Thursday September 5 at http://www.ippr.org/articles/who-is-losing-learning
• Advance copies are available under embargo on request.
• The report provides for the first time a full definition of 'lost learning' that schools, councils, and policy makers can use to fully encapsulate the scale of the situation. Lost learning refers to the academic and social education missed by children when they are out of class, out of school, or moved out of their local community setting.
• Suspension and exclusions "rates" refer to the way the Department for Education describe the prevalence of suspensions and exclusions. This is calculated by taking the number of suspensions or exclusions, dividing it by the number of pupils, and multiplying it by 100. This gives a "rate" per 100 pupils. This is not the same as the number of children who have experienced suspension or exclusion, as a single child may experience multiple suspensions or exclusions.
• Special Educational Needs (SEN) support is identified at school level, by a teacher, and means schools put in place additional support for that child to help them learn.
• Education Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) are legal documents issued by a local authority, following an assessment by an educational psychologist, and represent a higher level of support and funding for a child with special educational needs.
• Methodology:
  • Exclusion predictions: Government exclusions data is lagged, meaning recent statistics have only covered 22/23. However, analysts at FFT Education Datalab have tracked live attendance in a sample of schools in the last academic year (2023/24). This FFT data is an estimate of the combined suspension and exclusion rate. The estimate is based on attendance data from the academic year 2023/34, collected from almost 10,000 schools subscribing to the FFT Attendance Tracker. Previous analysis using this method yielded an accurate predictor of official data, which won't be released until next year.
  • Days lost learning: New analysis of Government data on unauthorised absence shows nationally 30,500,000 days lost, while 1,500,000 days are lost to suspensions.
• The local authorities with the highest levels of exclusions and unauthorised absence: 

• The Who's Losing Learning advisory council is backed by charities who have come together as the Who's Losing Learning Coalition, to highlight the growing challenge of children missing education. Members of the coalition are Impetus, an impact-focussed charity, and Mission 44, a charity working to build a fairer, more inclusive future for young people, alongside The Difference and IPPR.
• The Difference is a school leadership charity which exists to improve the life-outcomes of the most vulnerable children by raising the status and expertise of those who educate them. www.the-difference.com