New research finds widespread electoral impact of economic insecurity for the upcoming election
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Voters' worries about their economic insecurity are set to play a
‘pivotal role' in how they vote in the upcoming election, according
to new research from experts at Nuffield College, University of
Oxford. The research reveals that as many as 18.5
million people in Great Britain – 39% of voters – feel economically
insecure, where worries about their costs and financial prospects
are considered alongside their income. The researchers say this is
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Voters' worries about their economic insecurity are set to play a ‘pivotal role' in how they vote in the upcoming election, according to new research from experts at Nuffield College, University of Oxford. The research reveals that as many as 18.5 million people in Great Britain – 39% of voters – feel economically insecure, where worries about their costs and financial prospects are considered alongside their income. The researchers say this is the dividing line between voters that is behind the Conservatives' loss of support and Labour's gains, and may help to explain the ongoing electoral difficulties of the Conservatives as we approach Election Day. They warn politicians of the political risk of failing to address the concerns of such a large number of people spanning the income spectrum. The first findings from a large study of 8,000 people conducted in March 2024 by the Nuffield Politics Research Centre at the University of Oxford for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation found:
Economic insecurity and voting behaviour Economically insecure voters who supported the Conservatives in 2019 are now much more likely to have deserted the party than those who do not feel economically insecure. By contrast, Labour is by far the most popular party among economically insecure voters, and increasing levels of support from these voters have been a key factor in Labour's gains overall since 2019. Labour is picking up economically insecure voters at a greater rate than economically secure voters. Of the supporters Labour has gained since 2019:
Labour is also more popular with economically insecure voters overall:
The Conservatives are losing economically insecure voters at a higher rate than economically secure voters. Of those who voted for the party in 2019:
Economically insecure Conservative 2019 voters are defecting to both the right and to the left.
There is a clear split by age, too. Among those who voted Conservative in 2019:
Who feels economically insecure? Feeling economically insecure is not the same as being in poverty or having a low income. The research shows that costs which are difficult to adjust to quickly in response to economic shocks are closely associated with feelings of economic insecurity. Housing tenure is a key factor affecting economic insecurity. 39% of the electorate feel economically insecure, but that figure rises to 50% of private and social renters, and 46% of mortgage-holders on a variable rate or with less than a year left on a fixed rate. Those who aren't on a lower income, but who feel insecure, are also affected disproportionately by debt repayments and childcare costs. Age is an important factor too: people of working age (18-65) feel more economically insecure than those of retirement age (66+), even at similar levels of income. How widespread is economic insecurity? While 8.1 million people (17%) who feel economically insecure are on a lower income (defined as being in the lowest third of incomes), a larger group – 10.4 million (22%) – feel economically insecure despite having higher incomes. 8 million (17%) are on a lower income but do not feel economically insecure, while 44% of the electorate – 21.1 million – have neither low income nor feel economically insecure. Geoff Evans, Professor of the Sociology of Politics at Nuffield College, University of Oxford and research co-author, said: “For the first time we have been able to analyse how economic insecurity is influencing voting intention in the run-up to a general election. And with millions of people feeling economically insecure, how they choose to vote will have a significant impact on the result. “Economically insecure voters are deserting the Conservatives to the left and right, with a substantial proportion of insecure former 2019 Conservatives still undecided. Labour is making big gains among economically insecure voters, including those who did not vote in 2019. “Feelings of economic insecurity aren't confined to people on lower incomes. The impacts of high costs – from rent and mortgage repayments to childcare – stretch up the income spectrum. Any new government needs to consider carefully the stresses this large group of the public are experiencing, and respond with policies which address costs as well as incomes.” Jane Green, Professor of Political Science and British Politics at Nuffield College, University of Oxford and research co-author, said: “You cannot understand this election without understanding economic insecurity. It has emerged as a key dividing line between voters, and helps to explain both the Conservatives' loss of support and Labour's gains. “The next government will inherit a country where almost 40% of the electorate feel economically insecure. Addressing their concerns should be a priority – given the pivotal role economic insecurity now plays in voting intention, failure to do so carries huge political risk.” |