UK mobile connectivity: Pace required to hit Govt targets likely unsustainable, PAC report warns

The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) has published its report scrutinising mobile connectivity.

The report finds that the Department for Science, Innovation & Technology (DSIT) has more work to do to ensure the UK has the mobile connectivity it needs now and in the future. To meet its target of increasing 4G coverage to 95% of the UK landmass by December 2025, progress will need to continue at the same rate as the past year, even though the remaining locations will be even harder to reach and connect.

The report warns this pace may not be sustainable, with three of the four mobile network operators already advising DSIT that they are each unlikely to meet interim obligations, set by Ofcom, to increase their own 4G coverage to 88% of the UK landmass by 30 June 2024.

You can also read the attached report here.

You can find out more about the inquiry, including oral and written evidence, here.

Conclusions and recommendations

1. The Department is not certain what the eventual cost of the Shared Rural Network programme will be, who will bear cost increases and how addressing cost increases will impact on coverage.Cost pressures and delivery challenges experienced on the programme to date mean that the costs of delivering masts have been higher than expected.  On the Extended Area Service element of the programme, the Government's costs have risen by an estimated £44 million due to irrecoverable VAT and inflation. To absorb these additional costs, the Department is considering options for delivering the required increase in 4G coverage but with fewer masts. Cost pressures also mean that the final cost of the Total Not Spot element of the programme is uncertain. BDUK considers that it now has a better understanding of the cost increases on the Total Not Spot element than it did previously, and under the agreement by which the Department provides funding for the Total Not Spot element, it expects that any additional costs should be funded by the mobile network operators. However, Ofcom's licence agreements with the operators allow for relief of their individual obligations if costs are deemed excessive, creating uncertainty about where any costs will fall or if the Government's target for 95% 4G coverage will be met.

Recommendation 1: The Department and BDUK should work closely with the mobile network operators to ensure that government:

• Gets the information it needs from the operators to gain certainty on the cost increases; and
• Uses this information to inform decisions on how cost increases will be managed while at the same time ensuring that coverage targets are met.
• Fully considers emerging new technologies such as low orbiting satellites to ensure investments produce the most cost-effective results.

2. The Department has not identified the specific benefits it is aiming to achieve in the most remote areas of the UK to help guide decisions on where investment is most needed to improve connectivity. To secure good value from the Shared Rural Network programme, the Department needs to know where improved connectivity will offer the greatest benefits for the funding available. However, the Department's business case for the programme included limited evidence of the specific benefits of extending mobile coverage into remote and sparsely populated areas, where building masts may be more difficult or expensive, or where there may be an impact on the environment. Stakeholders from the northwest of Scotland, in areas which are particularly remote, have already raised concerns about the impact on the environment and questioned whether the benefits justify the investment of taxpayers' money. The Department accepts that there is a need for more information on the benefits of improving connectivity in remote areas and says that the individual benefits of each mast will be set out as part of the planning process, which will help to test the benefits of each site.

Recommendation 2: Now that the proposed locations of Shared Rural Network masts are more certain, the Department should revisit its cost benefit analysis to determine more precisely who will benefit, and how, from its investment in 4G connectivity. It should use this information to inform final decisions on mast locations and numbers and to communicate the case for investment to stakeholders.

3. The Department has not confirmed which specific areas are in the 5% of the UK landmass that will not have 4G connectivity, and it does not yet have a plan for ensuring that consumers and businesses in these areas get the connectivity they need.At the outset of the programme, the Department committed to increasing 4G coverage to 95% of the UK landmass, but, because the location of masts was not certain, it did not confirm which specific geographical areas would benefit from better coverage. Although the location of masts and the areas that will gain 4G coverage is now clearer, the Department has not set out where the remaining coverage gaps will be or determined how it will ensure that consumers and businesses in these areas get the coverage they need. The 5% of landmass that will not gain coverage from the Shared Rural Network programme is extremely rural and remote, with very low population and only small numbers of people travelling through, and the Department's view is that there is a line to be drawn on how much to invest in those areas where it might not make economic sense to build a mast. The Department acknowledges that it might be more economical to use alternative technologies such as low earth orbit satellites instead of masts to provide coverage in these areas.

Recommendation 3: With clearer information about the proposed location of masts, the Department should now confirm which areas of the UK will still not have 4G connectivity once the Shared Rural Network programme is complete. It should assess the impact of this on communities in these areas and develop a plan for alternative ways of ensuring they get the connectivity they need.

4. The mobile coverage reported by Ofcom does not always reflect the actual level of service that businesses and consumers experience, and which may sometimes be significantly worse than reported.The data that Ofcom publishes on mobile coverage across the UK is based on modelled estimates provided by the mobile network operators. Ofcom also conducts sample tests to check the data provided by the mobile network operators. However, the mobile coverage levels published by Ofcom do not always reflect the consumer experience. For example, trees, local geography or different building materials used within premises can affect the coverage that people experience. In addition, some people experience worse coverage inside premises and may only receive a 3G signal indoors, despite getting a 4G signal outside. The lack of a 4G signal in some locations may have implications for the connectivity people will experience when mobile network operators begin their planned 3G switch off, which they are due to do from this year and which has already started to happen. The Department has asked Ofcom to determine how it can improve coverage data to better reflect people's experiences, and Ofcom is looking at how it can use crowd-sourced data for this purpose. The Department has said it will explore with Ofcom the setting up of a repository so that consumers can report coverage gaps directly.

Recommendation 4: The Department should take urgent action to ensure that it has meaningful data on mobile coverage that reflects people's actual experience. As part of this it should:

• Work with Ofcom to develop ways that consumers and businesses can directly report coverage gaps in real-time to help build a more realistic and detailed picture of mobile coverage across the UK;
• Ask Ofcom to examine any cases where areas have lost all mobile connectivity following 3G switch off; and
• Ensure that mechanisms for measuring access to 5G coverage are fit for purpose.

5. The Department lacks up to date information to track progress on whether the Shared Rural Network programme will meet its targets for increasing connectivity on roads and premises.In addition to the overall target to increase 4G coverage to 95% of the UK landmass, the Department also aims to provide 280,000 additional premises and 16,000 kilometres of roads with 4G coverage through the Shared Rural Network programme. However, the Department is unclear on how many premises and roads had gained 4G connectivity so far and is still in discussions with the mobile network operators about getting the information it needs to track progress against these targets. Furthermore, it says that Ofcom will not assess whether the mobile network operators have met these targets until 2027. Despite not being able to confirm what progress has been made do far, based on information BDUK has received to date from the mobile network operators, the Department says it is confident that it will meet the roads and premises targets.

Recommendation 5: The Department should work with Ofcom and the mobile network operators to ensure that it can report publicly on progress against its targets for increasing 4G connectivity on roads and premises.

6. Progress in improving connectivity on UK railways has been hampered by a lack of up-to-date coverage data.Mobile connectivity along major rail routes remains poor and passengers can often struggle to make calls, stream videos or work online. Improving rail connectivity is very challenging, with tunnels, cuttings and safety glass on modern trains making reception difficult. It is also, according to the Department, expensive because it requires installation of infrastructure alongside the railway track. Improving connectivity on railways is the responsibility of the Department for Transport and proposals to improve mobile connectivity need to be judged alongside other priorities for investment on the railways. However, the data on rail mobile coverage that is available to inform these investment decisions is not fit for purpose. There is a lack of granular data showing, for example, mobile coverage for each metre of rail. The data is also out of date, with Ofcom publishing its last study on rail mobile coverage in 2019.

Recommendation 6: Working with Ofcom and the Department for Transport, the Department should make a plan for more frequent collection of coverage data on the UK rail network to help it prioritise the rail lines where improvements in coverage is most needed. This information should be published on a regular basis so that rail travellers have clearer information on the coverage they will experience.

7. The Department's plans for supporting investment in 5G infrastructure are undeveloped and it has not articulated what it has achieved from taxpayers' investment to date.Since 2017, the Department has committed over £500 million to determine how 5G technology could be used by consumers and businesses in the UK, to promote investment in 5G, and for research into more advanced technologies. The Department has published information on the outcomes of its spending programmes but has not brought information together to make it clear what it has achieved to date. Nor does the Department currently plan to directly support the roll-out of 5G infrastructure in the same way as it has done for 4G. There have been calls for the Government to act quickly to support 5G deployment in areas where the market is unwilling to deliver, but the Department is waiting to see how willing the mobile network operators are to invest and how far the commercial roll-out progresses before deciding if government investment is needed. It has set an ambition for standalone 5G to be available in all populated areas by 2030, but has not yet defined all populated areas or the level of 5G performance it considers the UK needs.

Recommendation 7: The Department should set out more clearly what it has achieved from its investment to date in 5G, as well as setting more meaningful and measurable targets for assessing its progress in supporting the roll-out of standalone 5G mobile coverage.