Covering the five weeks 25 February – 30 March
2024
- Total sales in Scotland increased by 2.8% compared with March
2023, when they had grown 8.8%. This was above the 3-month
average increase of 2.1% and below the 12-month average growth of
5.2%. Adjusted for inflation, the year-on-year growth was 1.5%.
- Scottish sales increased by 2.1% on a Like-for-like basis
compared with March 2023, when they had increased by 6.0%. This
is above the 3-month average increase of 1.4% and below the
12-month average growth of 4.0%.
- Total Food sales increased by 5.1% versus March 2023, when
they had increased by 14.3%. March was above the 3-month average
growth of 4.5% and below the 12-month average growth of 8.9%. The
3-month average was below the UK level of 6.8%.
- Total Non-Food sales increased by 0.9% in March compared with
March 2023, when they had increased by 4.1%. This was above the
3-month average decrease of 0.1% and below the 12-month average
growth of 2.1%.
- Adjusted for the estimated effect of Online sales, Total
Non-Food sales increased by 0.1% in March versus March 2023, when
they had increased by 3.4%. This was above the 3-month average
decline of 1.4% and below the 12-month average growth of 0.8%.
Ewan MacDonald-Russell, Deputy Head | Scottish Retail Consortium
“Clearly one swallow doesn't make a summer, but these positive
figures for March are a balm for hard-pressed retailers in
Scotland after many months of difficult trading. The data shows a
pick-up in demand across food and non-food categories with the
total value of retail sales, once adjusted for shop price
inflation, growing for the first time since last June. This was
buoyed in great part by the early Easter and associated
improvement in footfall.
“Sales of home accessories, home textiles and health and beauty
performed well, as did grocery and toys as Scots readied for
Easter and the school break. In contrast DIY, garden furniture,
and larger household appliances fared less well.
“Enthusiasm over March's sprightlier results is understandable
after a sustained and difficult period for Scottish retail sales.
However, this needs to be tempered given continuing pressures on
retailers' outgoings and the fact that some Easter related
purchases will have been pulled forward into March. It's too
early to say Scottish retail sales have turned the corner.
However, the continued real terms growth in wages, the easing of
shop price inflation, and the freeze to council tax and
reductions in employee national insurance contributions should
all help support future demand.”
Linda Ellett, UK Head of Consumer, Retail and
Leisure | KPMG
"After a tough start to the year, an early Easter showed the
green shoots of spring with total sales in Scotland increasing by
2.8% in March. Whilst this seems disappointing compared to the
increase of 8.8% last March, this was above the 3-month average
increase of 2.1% and when adjusted for inflation is a positive
1.5% year-on-year growth.
“High street sales growth was driven by food and drink, health
and beauty and keen gardeners who headed outside to enjoy the
first days of spring. There were also some signs of green
shoots with more categories starting to see positive sales growth
in March for the first time in months.
“As April signals big increases in the sector's cost base –
through the rise in minimum wage rates and business rate hikes
for the larger high street brands – retailers will be hoping that
the bounce back of March sales is more than just an Easter
blip. Economic indicators are heading in the right
direction with inflationary pressures easing and interest rates
having potentially peaked, however consumer confidence remains
fragile and households continue to keep a close eye on where
their tight budgets are being spent. It remains a
challenging environment, but as we head into the warmer months
retailers will be hoping that stronger consumer confidence will
turn into stronger retail sales, especially in more discretionary
categories such as clothing, following an incredibly difficult
few years."
