Wales saw a very disappointing set of PISA results when they were
published in December 2023. There were larger declines in
reading, maths and science than in most other countries. This
left scores in Wales lower than in the rest of the UK. The
problem is not just low PISA scores either; there are bigger
inequalities in GCSE results in Wales and post-16 outcomes are
worse.
Poor educational outcomes across the spectrum in Wales, with
particularly poor performance among less-well-off pupils,
represent a major challenge for the new First Minister. We
recommend that policymakers and educators in Wales rethink past
reforms and make major changes. Without reform, there is a danger
that the picture will get worse.
These are the main conclusions of a new IFS report, ‘Major
challenges for education in Wales’, written by Luke Sibieta, who
is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the
Education Policy Institute.
Low educational outcomes in Wales extend across a range
of measures and are unlikely to reflect higher poverty in Wales,
a different ethnic mix of pupils, statistical biases or
differences in resources:
-
PISA scores in Wales in 2022 declined by more than in
most other countries, and by more than in the other nations of
the UK. This brought scores in Wales to their lowest
ever level, significantly below the average across OECD
countries.
- In PISA, the average pupil in Wales performed at the
same level as the most disadvantaged children in
England.
- The gap in GCSE results between disadvantaged and other
children in Wales in 2019 (equivalent to 22–23 months of
educational progress) was larger than in England (equivalent to a
still large 18 months of educational progress).
-
Across England and Wales, the local areas with the
lowest performance for disadvantaged pupils are practically all
in Wales. There are many local areas of England with
higher or similar levels of poverty to local areas in Wales,
but which achieve significantly higher GCSE results for
disadvantaged pupils, e.g. Liverpool, Gateshead and Barnsley.
- In PISA data, second-generation immigrants also tend to show
lower levels of performance in Wales than in England.
- Spending per pupil is similar in the two countries, in terms
of current levels, recent cuts and recent trends over time.
- There are also worse post-16 educational outcomes in
Wales, with a higher share of young people not in
education, employment or training than in the rest of the UK (11%
compared with 5–9%), lower levels of participation in higher
education (particularly amongst boys) and lower levels of
employment and earnings for those from disadvantaged backgrounds.
The explanation for lower educational performance is more
likely to reflect longstanding differences in policy and
approach, such as lower levels of external accountability and
less use of data. There are also important lessons for
policymakers in Wales from across the UK.
- The new Curriculum for Wales is partly based on the Scottish
Curriculum for Excellence. Both aim to broaden the curriculum,
improve well-being and focus on skills. However, there is now
evidence that these quite general skills-based curricula might
not be effective ways to develop those skills. In PISA,
pupil well-being in Wales is also significantly below the OECD
average.
- New GCSEs are due to be taught in Wales from 2025, including
greater use of continuous assessment, a broader range of subjects
and the removal of triple science as an option. These reforms run
the risk of widening inequalities, increasing teacher workload
and limiting future education opportunities.
- There is much greater use of data to understand differences
in outcomes and inequalities in England. This could easily be
emulated in Wales without any return to school league tables.
We recommend that policymakers and educators in Wales
pause and rethink ongoing reforms in the following
areas:
- The new Curriculum for Wales should place greater emphasis on
specific knowledge.
- Reforms to GCSEs should be delayed to give proper time to
consider their effects on long-term outcomes, teacher workload
and inequalities.
- More data on pupil skill levels and the degree of inequality
in attainment are needed and should be published regularly.
- A move towards school report cards, alongside existing school
inspections, could be an effective way to provide greater
information for parents without any return to league tables.
Luke Sibieta, IFS Research Fellow and author,
said: ‘Policymakers in Wales have long placed a high
emphasis on reducing inequality in education and wider society.
Teachers and school staff in Wales work hard to equip young
people with the skills they need for the future and mitigate the
effects of poverty. Unfortunately, we see worryingly low outcomes
in PISA tests, high inequalities in GCSE results and
disappointing post-16 outcomes for young people in Wales. Faced
with this gloomy picture, policymakers should have the courage to
make reforms based on solid evidence, such as increasing the
emphasis on specific knowledge in the curriculum and making
better use of data to shine a spotlight on inequalities
throughout the system. Without reform, the picture may worsen.’
ENDS
