The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) peer-reviewed a draft
version of a publication on new methodology for
estimating excess deaths in the UK.
Excess mortality is the difference between the observed number of
deaths in a particular period and the number of deaths that would
have been expected in that period, based on historical data.
Draft publication review
The report, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
contains estimates for excess deaths for 2023. GAD reviewed the
model article ahead of its publication. The article explains the
new approach and provides a comparison of estimates from the new
and current methods for recent years.
New method
The ONS reported that the new methodology means in the UK there
were 10,994 excess deaths last year. This is 20,448 fewer than
the estimate using the current method.
Differences between the new and current methods mean that:
- the expected number of deaths used in the calculation of
excess mortality is estimated from age-specific mortality rates
rather than death counts
- trends in population size and age structure are taken into
account
- it accounts for trends in population mortality rates
- estimates, on an annual basis, indicate 76,412 excess deaths
in the UK in 2020, compared with 84,064 (estimated by the old
method)
The new and old methods estimate similar numbers of excess deaths
during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Collaboration and development
This methodology was developed in collaboration with several
organisations. These included the Office for Health Improvement
and Disparities, the UK Health Security Agency and the Continuous
Mortality Investigation.
