Labour analysis shows season ticket cost could rocket 4.8% for long-suffering rail users next year

Wednesday, 18 August 2021 08:18

Season ticket fares could rocket by up to 4.8% next year, new analysis by Labour has shown – the biggest increase in a decade. Passengers were hit with a 2.6% increase on the cost of train travel from March 1 2021. But new Retail Price Index (RPI) figures released today show the already eye-watering cost could rise by another 4.8% next January, if the Government continues to use RPI plus 1% as its basis for ticket price increases. Labour has analysed costs on more than 180...Request free trial

Season ticket fares could rocket by up to 4.8% next year, new analysis by Labour has shown – the biggest increase in a decade.

Passengers were hit with a 2.6% increase on the cost of train travel from March 1 2021. But new Retail Price Index (RPI) figures released today show the already eye-watering cost could rise by another 4.8% next January, if the Government continues to use RPI plus 1% as its basis for ticket price increases.

Labour has analysed costs on more than 180 train routes since the Conservatives came to power and the projected new prices that will be implemented in 2022.

The average commuter faces paying £3,295 for their season ticket - £1101, or 50% more, than in 2010.

New figures released today by Labour show:

Average fares will rise to 50.35% more than they were in 2010.

That some commuters will be paying over £4,000 more to travel to work than in 2010.

The highest increase is projected to be on a season ticket between Birmingham and London Euston which will have risen by £4,016 since 2010 and now costs £12,044.

The biggest percentage increase identified was between Thame Bridge Parkway near Walsall and Nuneaton, where the cost of an annual season ticket will have risen by 71 per cent since 2010.

In Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge constituency the cost of an annual season ticket from West Drayton to London Paddington has risen by £736 since 2010.

Average fares have risen nearly three times faster than wages.

Jim McMahon MP, Labour’s Shadow Transport Secretary, said:

“Rail travel has long been unaffordable for many people, thanks to the Conservatives prioritising the profits of private companies over passengers.

“This would be yet another eye-watering hike hot on the heels of the failure of the Government’s so-called money saving flexi ticket scheme.”

Ends

Notes to editors

The average commuter will be paying £3,295 for their season ticket in 2022, £1,101 more than in 2010.

The average 2017 annual season ticket reportedly costs £2,788.[1] Regulated rail fares rose by 27.1% between 2010 and 2017, which means that the average season ticket in 2010 would have cost £2,194. A 50% (from 2010-2022) increase on £2,194 is £3,295.

Top 5 highest rises in cash terms

Annual Season Tickets	2010	2022 projected	£ increase	% increase
Birmingham - London (Virgin)	£8,028	£12,044	£4,016	50%
Coventry - London Euston (any permitted route)	£7,096	£10,648	£3,552	50%
Swindon - London	£6,640	£9,969	£3,329	50%
Norwich - London	£6,212	£9,310	£3,098	50%
Stoke-on-Trent - Milton Keynes Central	£5,320	£8,346	£3,026	57%

Top 5 highest rises in percentage terms

Annual Season Tickets	2010	2022 projected	£ increase	% increase
Tame Bridge Parkway - Nuneaton	£1,948	£3,324	£1,376	71%
Bloxwich - Nuneaton	£2,228	£3,798	£1,570	70%
Enfield Town - London Liverpool Street	£1,200	£1,928	£728	61%
Dover Priory (non HS1) - London	£3,880	£6,234	£2,354	61%
Hastings or Rye (HS1) - London St Pancras	£4,608	£7,399	£2,791	61%

Fare rises in Ministers’ constituencies

Annual Season Tickets	2010	2022 projected	£ increase	% increase
Boris Johnson: West Drayton- London Paddington	£1,448	£2,184	£736	51%
Grant Shapps: Hatfield – London Kings Cross	£2,068	£3,106	£1,038	50%

Season ticket data for 2010 has been taken from the Avantix Traveller (National Fares Manual) database.http://data.atoc.org/fares-data

2022 are based on a 4.8% increase on 2021 prices which have been taken from the National Rail season ticket calculator.https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/times_fares/Season-Calculator.aspx

Regulated rail fares, which include season tickets and most other commuter tickets, will have risen by 50% on average between 2010 and 2022.

year	annual increase at RPI	RPI rate per cent	Cap per cent	Average indexed against 2010
2010				100
2011	RPI+1	4.8	5.8	106
2012	RPI+1	5	6	112
2013	RPI+1	3.2	4.2	117
2014	RPI	3.1	3.1	120
2015	RPI	2.5	2.5	123
2016	RPI	1	1	125
2017	RPI	1.9	1.9	127
2018	RPI	3.6	3.6	132
2019	RPI	3.2	3.2	136
2020	RPI	3.0	3.0	140
2021	RPI+1	1.6	1.6	143
2022	RPI+1	3.8	4.8	150.35

Regulated fares have risen by more than the average on some routes because Ministers decided to restore ‘flex,’ the train companies’ right to vary prices by up to 5 per cent, between 2011 and 2014.
In September 2014 the Department for Transport introduced a new evening peak period in metropolitan areas on the Northern franchise, which raised the cost of travel by up to 162%.

Median weekly wages grew by 17.5% between 2010 and 2020

Year	Median (Gross, £)	Annual % change
2010	498.5	2.05
2011	500.7	0.44
2012	506.1	1.08
2013	517.4	2.23
2014	518.3	0.17
2015	527.1	1.7
2016	538.7	2.2
2017	550.4	2.2
2018	569	3.5
2019	585	2.9
2020	586	0.1

Year	% change
Year	% change
2010-2020	17.5

ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2020, 3 November 2020,https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2020