The interim findings from the ninth report of REACT-1, one of the
country’s largest studies into COVID-19 infections in England,
have been published today by Imperial College London and Ipsos
MORI.
Over 85,400 volunteers were tested in England between 4 and 13 of
February to examine the levels of infection in the general
population. The findings show infections in England have fallen
significantly since the last report in January.
These latest findings demonstrate the impact lockdown
restrictions are having on reducing infections across the
country. Infections still remain high with more people in
hospital than at the peak last April and hospital admissions for
COVID-19 are at around 1,600 a day. It is vital everyone
continues to play their part by staying at home and getting
vaccinated when invited.
The main findings from the ninth REACT study show:
- national prevalence fell by two thirds from 1.57% to 0.51%,
or 51 per 10,000 infected, compared to the last REACT report from
6 – 22 January;
- a halving time of 15 days and an R number of 0.72, based on
the prevalence observed at the end of the last report and today’s
interim findings;
- regional prevalence fell in all areas compared to the last
REACT report from 6-22 January. It was highest in the North West
[1.38% to 0.91%] and North East [1.22% to 0.82%].There were
substantial falls in prevalence compared to the last report in
January in London [2.83% to 0.54]; West Midlands [1.66% to
0.33%]; East of England [1.78% to 0.54%]; South East [1.61% to
0.30%]; East Midlands [1.16% to 0.51%]. There was a smaller fall
in Yorkshire and The Humber [0.80% to 0.61%];
- prevalence fell substantially across all age groups compared
to the last REACT report from 6-22 January. Prevalence fell from
0.93% to 0.30% among the over 65s. Highest prevalence is among 18
to 24-year olds at 0.89% and those aged 5-12 at 0.86%;
- large household size, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and
areas with higher numbers of Asian ethnicity individuals were
associated with increased prevalence; and
- healthcare and care home workers were more likely to test
positive compared to other workers.
Health and Social Care Secretary said:
“These findings show encouraging signs infections are now heading
in the right direction across the country, but we must not drop
our guard.
“Cases and hospital admissions remain high – over 20,000 COVID-19
patients are in hospital - so it is vital we all remain vigilant
and follow the rules as our vaccination rollout continues at
pace.
“I urge everyone to continue to stay at home - remember hands,
face, space – and get your jab when you receive your invite.”
While the vaccine programme continues to expand to protect as
many people as possible, with over 15 million people vaccinated,
we do not yet know whether being vaccinated stops someone from
passing the virus on to others.It will also be some time before
the impact of the vaccination programme reduces pressures on
hospitals.
It is critical everyone continues to follow the rules, stays at
home, reduces contact with others and maintains social distancing
- remembering hands, face, space.
Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at Imperial,
said:
“These encouraging results show that lockdown measures are
effectively bringing infections down. It’s reassuring that the
reduction in numbers of infections occurred in all ages and in
most regions across the country.
“While the trends we’ve observed are good news, we need to all
work to keep infections down by sticking to the measures which
are designed to protect us and our health system.”
Kelly Beaver, Managing Director- Public Affairs at Ipsos MORI
said:
“The reduction in prevalence from our last REACT round is very
welcome, particularly the very large reduction in London. But
it’s important that we continue following all the measures that
the Government has set out so that we can continue to see further
reductions, and make progress in beating the pandemic.”
This report is the latest from the REACT study which was
commissioned by DHSC and carried out by a world-class team of
scientists, clinicians and researchers at Imperial College
London, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Ipsos MORI.
Notes to editors
