The rapid increase in students receiving first class honours
degrees which cannot be explained by factors which may affect
attainment has slowed, new data from the Office for Students
(OfS) shows.
Analysis published today by the OfS finds that a total of 29.5
per cent of students included in the analysis received a first
class honours degree in 2018-19. Of these, the OfS’s statistical
modelling finds 14.3 percentage points are unexplained when
compared to attainment in 2010-11. This is an increase of 0.4
percentage points since 2017-18.
In 2010-11, the reference year for the study, 15.7 per cent of
students received a first. There have since been year-on-year
increases in both the proportion of firsts awarded and those
found unexplained by the OfS’s modelling, although the increase
this year is the smallest observed.
The report presents data at both an individual university level
as well as collated data from across the sector. The sector-wide
data shows that students with the highest A-level results are
most likely to gain a first class degree, though there has been
increased attainment across the board. As was the case in
2017-18, students entering university with A-level (or
equivalent) grades below DDD were almost four times as likely to
receive a first class degree in 2018-19 as their counterparts in
2010-11.
Nicola Dandridge, chief executive of the Office for Students
said:
‘This data shows that the increase in the proportion of first
class degrees awarded in 2018-19 has slowed compared to previous
years, with a small increase from last year in the percentage of
first class degrees which cannot be explained by other factors.
While this may indicate that the brakes have been applied, it is
clear that grade inflation remains a significant and pressing
issue in English higher education.
‘Overall, this data represents a mixed picture. It may well be
that factors we don’t account for in our modelling, including
improved teaching and learning, have driven some of the increase
that we have seen in recent years. There are also some striking
changes at some of those universities which had previously
awarded high proportions of firsts, although there is increased
evidence of an unexplained increase in firsts at 73 per cent of
universities.
‘Unexplained grade inflation risks undermining public confidence
in higher education, and devaluing the hard work of students.
Degrees must stand the test of time, which is why the OfS will
continue to address this issue at both a sector-wide and
individual university level.
‘The OfS launched a consultation this week with proposals which
will help us to strengthen our ability to regulate quality and
standards. These proposals, if taken forward following the
consultation process, would let us intervene where evidence
suggests that the standards set and recognised by the sector are
not being met in practice by an individual university, college or
other higher education provider.
‘It is correct to say that a permanent solution will require
continuing collective action from universities over a period of
time. Ultimately though, universities are individually
accountable for meeting the OfS’s regulatory requirements in this
area. Where we have concerns about unexplained grade inflation at
any particular university or college, we are prepared to
intervene to protect the integrity of the degree awarding system
for all students.’
ENDS
Notes
- The Office for Students (OfS) is the independent regulator of
higher education in England. We aim to ensure that every student,
whatever their background, has a fulfilling experience of higher
education that enriches their lives and careers.
- A copy of the analysis and an Excel spreadsheet of the data
tables is attached, and has been published on the OfS
website.
- The term ‘unexplained’ in the analysis means that changes in
attainment over the time period cannot be statistically accounted
for by changes in the characteristics of the graduating cohort in
terms of the explanatory variables included in the statistical
modelling.
- More information on some of the work the UK Standing
Committee for Quality Assessment has carried out to tackle grade
inflation is available from: https://ukscqa.org.uk/what-we-do/degree-standards/
- The analysis included degrees awarded by 147 universities,
colleges and other higher education providers.
- The OfS used statistical modelling of individual-level
graduate data to estimate expected patterns in degree
classification attainment between 2010-11 to 2018-19, accounting
for the following graduate characteristics (explanatory
variables):
- the provider at which the graduate was registered
- year of graduation
- subject of study
- qualifications on entry into higher education
- age
- additional contextual variables:
-
- declared disability status
- ethnicity
- sex
- POLAR4 quintile.
