New analysis by IPPR and the CF healthcare consultancy finds that
survival rates for cancer could be set to drop significantly this
year as a result of Covid-19.
Their modelling shows that five-year survival
rates could drop from 16.2 per cent to 15.4 per cent
for lung cancer, from 85 per cent to 83.5 per cent
for breast cancer, and from 58.4 per cent to 56.1
per cent for colorectal cancer.
These declines would represent a significant setback to
progress, with outcomes equivalent to those one year, six
years, and eight years earlier respectively.
Depending on the level of disruption in other countries
they could also leave the UK further behind in international
performance tables. The survival rates implied by the modelling
are equivalent to countries such as Turkey and Lithuania prior to
the pandemic.
The study suggests the main cause of this decline will be
late diagnosis and treatment of cancer caused by the pivot in the
NHS towards prioritising Covid-19 patients. It highlights
that during the pandemic:
-
Screening across the UK has stopped during the lockdown
meaning 210,000 people per week going without;
-
Urgent GP referrals for diagnostics - formally known as
the two-week wait - are down by over 40 per cent;
-
Diagnostic testing, including through CT and MRI scans
and endoscopy, is down by between 28 and 76 per cent;
-
Treatment including surgery, chemotherapy and
radiotherapy is down by between 10 and 40 per cent.
The report recognises recent initiatives by the
government to restore performance across cancer services but
argues that it must go “further and faster” by:
-
Making diagnosis and treatment of cancer “Covid-safe’
by moving diagnostics into the community where possible and
ensuring all cancer staff and patients are tested regularly.
The analysis suggests this commitment alone would require up
to 170,000 tests per week.
-
Increasing capacity - particularly for diagnostics and
treatment - as quickly as possible. The government must
swiftly invest in more capacity to clear the backlog of
patients - even if this means using the private
sector.
It also argues that there is an opportunity to “build
back better”, using the pandemic as an opportunity to address
existing weaknesses in our health and care services for cancer
by:
-
Building on the prime minister’s recent obesity drive
by launching a comprehensive new public health strategy to
prevent illness. This should span the main causes of cancer,
such as alcohol consumption and smoking, across both adults
and children. It should also include restoring the public
health grant by providing at least an additional £1bn per
year.
-
Increasing diagnostic and treatment capacity within the
NHS by committing to match OECD levels of CT and MRI
machines. The report also highlights the need for more
endoscopy and radiotherapy equipment. This would require the
government to match OECD levels of capital spending, as
recommended by IPPR previously.
Harry Quilter-Pinner, IPPR associate director and
head of its Better Health and Care Programme, said:
“The pandemic has been devastating, not just for
families directly impacted by Covid-19 but also for those with
loved ones suffering from other heath conditions. Our analysis
shows that thousands could die early of conditions such as cancer
as a result of the lockdown in NHS services. The government must
make it a top priority to restart cancer services and ensure they
are resilient for a potential second wave of
Covid-19.
“But we do not have to - and should not - revert to the
pre-Covid status quo which saw the UK lagging behind other
advanced countries in cancer outcomes. We can use the disruption
of the pandemic to design a better system. This demands bolder
action on public health to prevent people from getting cancer,
and also more investment in NHS diagnostics to ensure that if
people do get cancer, we can catch it early.”
