A new Institute for Government paper says the government must be
straight with the public that there can be no single grand exit
plan to release the coronavirus lockdown. Any easing of
restrictions will need to evolve in response to new evidence from
the UK and abroad.
Published today, Lifting the Lockdown: How to approach a
coronavirus exit strategy, warns that the government’s five tests
for starting to lift the lockdown are not a good enough guide to
the longer-term exit strategy.
The government must instead set out new tests which explain how
it will balance economic and health concerns against each other
in lifting the restrictions.
Current restrictions, which apply more or less uniformly across
the UK, have still led to misunderstandings. There is a risk of
increased confusion if these restrictions are lifted at different
times for different groups, or in different areas of the country.
However, the government should still examine whether variation
like this would be valuable.
The prime minister will need to explain whatever changes his
government makes to the measures – clearly and repeatedly – and
the trade-offs and thinking behind them. The government may need
to adapt its strategy if it loses public support, and it cannot
afford to let policy decisions race ahead of its ability to
deliver results. This would erode public confidence and consent.
The paper also recommends:
· Providing enough capacity to test those who might be infected
and trace anyone with whom they have come into contact, to ensure
the disease can be contained even as restrictions are lifted.
· Lifting restrictions first for those businesses that are best
able to implement social distancing in the workplace and for
those sectors where the longer-term harms from the shutdown are
likely to be most severe.
· Introducing encouragement and incentives, such as tax
incentives or reducing support for furloughed workers, to bring
people and businesses out of lockdown.
The Institute for Government’s Joe Owen, one of the report’s
authors, said:
“How to ease the coronavirus lockdown will require to make some of the toughest
choices to have faced any prime minister. There can be no grand
plan for exit, only a process of edging forward. The government’s
approach will have to evolve to take account of the best
evidence, but these will be overwhelmingly political choices –
and the government will need to be straight with the British
people about the steps that will be taken in the months ahead.”
