A new report by the Independent Transport Commission (ITC)
examines the changing travel behaviour in the bus market in
England outside of London since the late 2000s.
The report – “The shape of changing bus demand in England” –
authored by leading transport experts Dr Scott Le Vine and Emeritus
Professor Peter White, uses National Travel Survey (NTS) data to
explore what has been happening to bus travel demand in England
since 2009, and investigates how the bus market has been changing.
The headlines are:
- Traditional bus markets are in decline; but new ones are
emerging among affluent millennials – offering a fresh
long-term focus for the revival of the bus industry
- men between 17-39 years old are the bus industry’s untold
success story
- ‘bus users’ outside of London are travelling 5% more than
in 2009 (opposite to rail), while
- the ‘Uber’ effect is minimal.
The main findings are:
- Outside London, the number of annual bus journeys in
England fell by 15%
- The proportion of the population who are ‘bus users’ has
declined from 21% to 18%, the opposite of rail where a greater
percentage of the population is travelling by rail
- The remaining 'bus users’ are using the bus more intensely,
making 5% more journeys
- Overall, local bus travel by women has fallen by 15% and
men by 6%
- The highest rates of bus journeys are by people between
ages 17 and 20, particularly females.
- Men between 17 and 39 are making 14% more trips than in
2009, with 5% more miles per trip
- Traditional bus ‘core’ markets – the unemployed, students,
non-car owners, low personal income (less than £5,000) – have
decreased by 15%, 10%, 10% and 13% respectively
- Usage has fallen most steeply in the lowest income groups,
due to increased car ownership
- Nationally, there is no strong evidence of lost market
share to private hire services (Uber) and taxis.
- Of all journey purposes by bus, shopping has fallen the
most due to online shopping and the decline of the high street
- Local bus shopping trips have declined by 25% since 2009,
compared with shopping trips by all modes decreasing by 5%,
related to the increasing trend for out-of-town shopping
centres
- Low-density rural counties (Lincolnshire, Yorkshire) and
historic industrial areas (Stoke, Middlesbrough) are the areas
with the strongest decline in bus usage with falls of over
20%. However, much of southern England, including
low-density locations (West Berkshire, Cornwall) and urban
areas where bus usage was already high (Reading, Bristol,
Brighton), have seen bus use increase.
“It is clear that the decline in bus travel outside London has
been caused by a shrinkage in the proportion of the population
who are bus users, rather than existing travellers using the bus
less – the opposite trend that the ITC uncovered in the rail
market", said Dr Matthew Niblett, Director of the ITC.
He added: “While traditional core bus markets – people on
low-incomes, non-car owners, students, pensioners and those
shopping – have been turning away from the bus since the great
recession in 2008, it’s not all gloom for bus travel. The gender
gap has narrowed, economically flourishing cities in southern
England have delivered strong numbers, while usage has
intensified amongst younger men.”
In September 2019, the Government announced that a National Bus
Strategy would be published, backed by £220m of funding to
expand, decarbonise and modernise the bus network through the
use of technology to improve passengers access. The Budget is
due on 11th March.
