The SNP’s resounding victory in Scotland – taking 48
of 59 seats – was based on a manifesto calling for a second
independence referendum.
While the prime minister has the constitutional power
to refuse to let Scotland hold one, this may not be
sustainable if Scotland’s pro-independence parties
continue to demonstrate they can muster strong public
support.
But holding a second independence referendum in 2020,
as the SNP has demanded, would be a mistake.
Published today by the
Institute for Government, A Second Independence
Referendum: When and how could Scotland vote
again? says the result
of the UK general election has set Westminster and Holyrood on a
collision course over the future of the
Union. But important constitutional
decisions should not be rushed.
The first referendum in 2014 took place more than
three years after agreement on it was reached in principle. It
would also take time for the Scottish government to set out its
vision for independence, and for the UK government to develop
alternative proposals for a reformed Union with more powers for
Scotland, if it chose to do so. There is unlikely to be agreement
on the UK’s future relationship with the EU by 2020, so voters
would also not have clarity on what remaining in the UK would
look like.
The UK government may also wish to make any potential
second referendum conditional on the result of the 2021 Scottish
Parliament election, which could then be fought explicitly on the
question of whether there should be another independence
vote.
If the prime minister wants to preserve and
strengthen the Union, he should now take the time to develop a
positive vision to try to persuade the people of Scotland that
their interests lie within the UK. This could include the
devolution of additional powers to Edinburgh, new protections for
Scotland that prevented Westminster from legislating in devolved
areas, and rights for the devolved institutions to be involved in
international negotiations and the development of post-Brexit
common frameworks.
Akash Paun, senior fellow at the Institute for
Government, said:
“A referendum should only take place
when Scottish voters can make an informed choice about their
constitutional future. Holding an independence referendum in 2020
is not the right move.”
Jess Sargeant, researcher at the Institute for
Government, said:
“If a second vote on Scottish independence is to take
place, it is important that the process commands legitimacy. The
UK and Scottish government must agree on both the principle and
the details of the referendum.”
ENDS
Notes to editors
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Full report can be found
here: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/
