Oral answers (Lords) onBrexit - Oct 24
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Brexit: Economic Forecasts Question 3.15 pm Asked by Lord
Strasburger To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether their forecasts
for the next ten years show a better outcome for the United Kingdom
economy if the United Kingdom were to remain in the European Union
than if it were to leave. The Minister of...Request free trial
Brexit: Economic ForecastsQuestion 3.15 pm Asked by To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether their forecasts for the next ten years show a better outcome for the United Kingdom economy if the United Kingdom were to remain in the European Union than if it were to leave. My Lords, the UK is leaving the EU on 29 March 2019 and will begin to chart a new course in the world. The Government’s proposals set out in the 12 July White Paper are the best way to protect jobs and avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. When we bring forward the vote on the final deal, Parliament will be presented with the appropriate analysis to make an informed decision. My Lords, as full EU members we currently enjoy the best possible trading terms with the EU 27. Any other deal must, by definition, be worse. Our Government are striving for a deal with our biggest trading partner that can only downgrade what we have now—that is worth thinking about. Does the Minister know of any other country that has deliberately degraded its trading relationship with its biggest customer? I do not accept the proposition behind that question. The world is changing. Some 90% of the growth that will happen over the next 10 years will be outside the European Union. Six of our largest trading partners are in the EU, including Germany, France and the Netherlands, but the United States is No. 1, China is growing very significantly and there is Switzerland too. This is a great country in which to invest and trade. That is why we have the largest stock of foreign direct investment and why our exports and employment continue to grow, and I expect that to go on happening once a deal is reached. My Lords, the Minister is answering on a hope and a prayer. In this age of uncertainty, to claim categorically that Brexit will be beneficial to the nation is extraordinary. Will he not accept that economic predictors in the past have been broadly correct? They have been right over the last seven or eight years that the economic growth rate in the United Kingdom would decline to one of the lowest in the G7. They also got right that the people who would pay for austerity would be working people, as their wages would not increase over this period. But there was one prediction that the Government got wholly wrong; the Minister partially reflected on it a moment ago. That was for the Prime Minister to go post-haste to the President of the United States to take steps towards an advantageous trade deal after Brexit. What was the reply? “America first.” As far as we are concerned on this negotiation, we want a deal, we expect a deal and we want good, positive relations with our European friends. If it is important that we continue to have access for goods worth £423 billion into the EU, is it not also crucial that it continue to have access so that it can sell us goods worth £518 billion each year? It is in the enlightened self-interest of both parties to reach a deal, and that is what the Prime Minister seeks. My Lords, in dealing with this Question, would it not be best to ask what will happen to the European Union over the next 10 years? Visegrad countries are pulling away, nationalism is growing in many European member states, Italy is considering whether it should leave the European Union, and Greece continues to have difficulties. Would it not be wise for us to work for a modern and completely different kind of European co-operation in the future, which might be better for Europe and us? My noble friend speaks with great knowledge and expertise in these areas. Of course, one of his points is the one I made right at the beginning: the fastest-growing economies will be outside the European Union. Last year, our exports to India rose by 31% and to China by 15%. Those are significant sums. Not just the UK but the EU needs to wake up to the competition around the world, and to ensure that we have markets that can compete in that new environment. My Lords, what are the Government’s economic forecasts for the next 10 years worth when their forecast of catastrophe in the 12 months following the referendum was so abjectly wrong? The noble Lord will remember the catastrophe that happened in 2008. I do not necessarily want to remind him of that. Growth has continued in every quarter since the referendum. We expect that to continue and that is what we are working for. We are also working for a deal—that is what the Prime Minister is working for tirelessly. She deserves our full support. My Lords, I am tempted to comment on our shocking growth numbers at 1.2% compared with those of the US and the EU, which are close to 6%. The noble Lord is relying on future free trade agreements. I am shocked to learn how low the utilisation of free trade agreements is. The requirements to qualify for zero tariffs under any existing free trade agreement are so heavy in documentation on rules of origin, certification, dealing with royalties and valuation that the overwhelming majority of companies choose to pay the tariff rather than opt for the zero. In some free trade agreements only 10% of qualified transactions opt for the zero tariff because of the costs; at best it is only 60%. Does that not damn the future trading relationships that he describes? I point out to the noble Baroness that some of the markets in which we are trading most successfully and where growth is increasing are ones that we do not have a formal free trade agreement with and where we operate on WTO terms. But that is not the objective we are setting for the future; we want a good trade agreement with our friends in the European Union and good free trade agreements that we will be able to negotiate with other countries around the world. My Lords, I have had the advantage of listening to the noble Lord, Lord King of Lothbury, speak about the reliability of economic forecasts. In summary it was, “Stuff happens”. No one 11 years ago would have foreseen what would happen in 2008 or the problems with the eurozone ever since. Indeed, the Treasury document that we had to see in private across the road itself fluctuated 5% this way and 5% that. Will the Minister understand if we take the forecasts with a great dose of salt? We should do, although of course we look at them. We somehow behave as though economic forecasts are some kind of target that we have to meet, when they are not. Our future is entirely in our own hands. What is better news for us is that it is entirely in the hands of British businesspeople, who have shown themselves to be world leaders the world over. I have great confidence in them and their ability to continue. Brexit: Civil Service ImpartialityQuestion 3.30 pm Asked by To ask Her Majesty’s Government what steps they are taking to protect the impartiality of the Civil Service following recent political criticisms of the Brexit process. My Lords, before I answer the noble Lord’s Question on the Civil Service, noble Lords may have heard that Sir Jeremy Heywood has announced his retirement as Cabinet Secretary to concentrate on his recovery from ill health. The whole House will wish that recovery to be swift and complete and we look forward to welcoming him to your Lordships’ House, where the wisdom, patience and humour that marked his career in the Civil Service can be harnessed by this House as it scrutinises legislation and holds the Government to account. Hear, hear. My Lords, the Ministerial Code is clear that Ministers must uphold at all times the impartiality of the Civil Service. This impartiality is a fundamental tenet of our system of government, set out in legislation and in the Civil Service Code. As always, the Civil Service is focused on doing its duty to implement the decisions and policies of the Government, including on negotiations and preparations for the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. My Lords, I am grateful to the Minister for his Answer. He speaks with authority, having been a civil servant as well as a distinguished former Minister. I am sure the whole House will appreciate the tribute he has paid to Sir Jeremy Heywood. Since a politically impartial and independent Civil Service recruited on the basis of merit, in which civil servants are advised to speak fearlessly in giving advice to Ministers, has been one of the strengths of our unwritten constitution in the last 150 years, will the noble Lord condemn all those politicians—of all political persuasions and different views on Brexit—who blame the civil servants for policy decisions which are the sole responsibility of Ministers? Does he not agree that this is damaging to confidence and trust in the Civil Service? As the noble Lord has indicated, I have an interest to declare: I was myself a civil servant in the 1960s, working for such agreeable political masters as George Brown and John Stonehouse. But on the serious issue the noble Lord raises, I agree entirely with what he has just said. I think that Oliver Robbins has the most difficult job in the Civil Service; it is quite wrong that he should be the lightning conductor for those unhappy with the negotiations. I deplore the anonymous allegation that he is following his own agenda, against the wishes of Ministers. My Lords, this may be a sad day for the Civil Service in losing Sir Jeremy Heywood but it is a happy day for us. I am sure that even the Lord Speaker, having commended us on reducing the size of the House, will welcome this exception for our new colleague. We wish him well. The best tribute to him will be if we can continue what he says in his farewell letter: that he has tried,
“to challenge lazy thinking and … to find solutions rather than simply identifying … obstacles”.
Our tribute should be that the Civil Service can continue to do that without being attacked because, rather like saying “Fake news”, those who attack it are doing so to undermine the words that civil servants say. When the Minister reaffirms the independence of the Civil Service, as I am sure he will, will he urge those Brexiteers to play the ball and not the man? I agree with what the noble Baroness has just said and I am grateful for her tribute to Sir Jeremy. The noble Lord, Lord Hennessy, has best summed up the merits of our Civil Service, speaking of its,
“core values of integrity, propriety, objectivity and appointment on merit, able to transfer its loyalty and expertise from one elected government to the next”.
I agree with the noble Baroness’s final point that, whatever one’s politics, one should play the ball and not the man. Ministers bear responsibility for any difficulties in negotiations, not civil servants. My Lords, as someone who strongly supports Brexit, may I say how much I support and agree with what the noble Lord, Lord Luce, has said? I deplore all the attacks made on civil servants. I particularly deplore—and have said this to several people—attacks on Sir Jeremy Heywood. He was my Private Secretary in three separate jobs and is an outstanding civil servant, devoted to giving impartial advice. I am deeply sorry to hear about his illness and wish him all the best. I am grateful to my noble friend. Like him, I worked with Sir Jeremy. I sat round the Cabinet table for a number of years with him and worked with him when I was Chief Whip and Leader of the House. One of his successes was building on the work of his predecessors and creating a more open, diverse, plural Civil Service that was also more professional but never lost sight of the basic principles of the Civil Service: honesty, openness, impartiality and integrity. My Lords, speaking for all his predecessors as Cabinet Secretary, I share and express our regret that Sir Jeremy Heywood has felt obliged to retire on health grounds. Sir Jeremy served many Prime Ministers and, as we have just heard, many Chancellors of the Exchequer. He served with great skill, unremitting hard work, distinction, impartiality and integrity. He has given the state some service and is well deserving of the gratitude and approval of the Government, Ministers, his colleagues in the Civil Service and both Houses of Parliament. I agree with the noble Lord’s every word and gently suggest that there will now be so many former Cabinet Secretaries in this House that perhaps they should form their own group. |