New research show high costs of just missing out on a Grade C in GCSE English

School students who narrowly fail to achieve a grade C in their GCSE English exam pay a high price, according to new research by Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela. Their study, published in the week when thousands of young people are going back to school to face high-stakes summer exams, explores what happened to those who took the GCSE English exam in 2013.

The analysis shows that:

• Narrowly missing the C grade in English language decreases the probability of enrolling in a higher-level qualification by at least 9 percentage points by age 19.
• There is a similarly large effect on the probability of achieving a higher (‘full level 3’) academic or vocational qualification by age 19 – which is needed as a pre-requisite for university or getting a job with good wage prospects.
• Students who narrowly miss the C grade are also less likely to enter tertiary or higher education by the age of 19.
• Perhaps most surprisingly, narrowly missing a grade C increases the probability of dropping out of education at age 18 by about 4 percentage points (in a context where the national average is 12%) and becoming ‘not in education, training or employment’ (NEETs) by about 2 percentage points.
• Those entering employment at this age (and without a grade C in English) are unlikely to be in jobs with good progression possibilities. If they are NEETs, this puts them at a high risk of wage scarring effects and crime participation resulting from youth unemployment in the longer term.

The administrative data that the researchers analyse follow the cohort that took the GCSE exam in 2013 over the next three years. Comparing students on the threshold of success and failure enables analysis of whether just passing or just failing has consequences for them in relation to their probability of early dropout from education (and employment) and their probability of accessing higher-level courses, which are known to have a positive wage return in the labour market.

The study also presents evidence on the mechanisms through which failing to obtain a grade C in English leads to poor outcomes. These involve a narrowing of opportunities that arise within the educational system on the choice of post-16 institution and course the year after failing to get a C grade in GCSE English: students end up in institutions with less well performing peers.

Dr. Ruiz-Valenzuela comments:

‘Our analysis does not suggest that having pass/fail thresholds are undesirable. Achievement of a minimum level of literacy and numeracy in the population is an important social and economic objective.’

‘But the fact that there are such big consequences from narrowly missing out on a C grade suggests that there is something going wrong within the system. It suggests that young people are not getting the support they need if they fail to make the grade (even narrowly).’

‘In a well-functioning education system, there would be ladders for the marginal student – or at least alternative educational options with good prospects. Our study suggests that the marginal student who is unlucky pays a high price.’

‘Other educational options available to people who cannot immediately enter higher academic or vocational education are failing to help a significant proportion of young people make progress up the educational ladder.’

‘This is symptomatic of an important source of inequality in education, with associated negative long-term economic consequences for young people who just fail to pass such an important high-stakes national exam taken at the end of compulsory schooling.’

Notes for Editors:

‘Entry Through the Narrow Door: The Costs of Just Failing High Stakes Exams’, Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, CVER Discussion Paper No.014, April 2018 will be available for download here.

‘Missing the mark at GCSE English: the costly consequences of just failing to get a grade C’, Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, is the latest CVER blog and can be previewed here.

The Centre for Vocational Education Research (CVER) is an independent research centre funded by the UK Department for Education (DfE). CVER brings together four partners: the LSE Centre for Economic Performance; University of Sheffield; National Institute of Economic and Social Research and London Economics.